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		读《夏商新考》	2019-12-09 10:57:55

读《夏商新考》

夏商周的断代问题，史学界投入了大量资源，却一直得不到令人信服的结果。韩剑秋先生作《夏商新考》，用定量分析和多重证据方法，推算出不同于史学界流行的结果。我不懂考古学，但是觉得韩剑秋的分析方法很有意思，和大家分享一下。

东周之前，年代的记载不很清楚，东周之后，年代的记载很清楚。韩剑秋以东周到清朝的帝王数量为数据，利用回归分析的方法，推算出夏商的年代。其结果和目前史学界流行的不一样，但和其它证据相符。

回归分析方法，本身非常简单，但是韩剑秋创造性地运用到考古研究中，得到非常清晰的结果。有兴趣的朋友，可以读一下他的《夏商新考》。
https://www.academia.edu/32193718/夏商新考


			文章评论

作者：安博

留言时间：2019-12-09 15:15:49

读了，很有意思。以前也有人提出过夏和商可能是平行朝代的说法，这篇文章和此说较近。


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作者：明小天

留言时间：2019-12-09 11:53:50

谢谢博主，长姿势


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· Soldner’s 1801 paper on light

· Why nations fail

· The purpose of thermodynamics

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【Reading (7)】

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· Einstein diary

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【Science (16)】

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【Carbon and climate (2)】

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【Science (15)】

· Why is the air pressure on Ven

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· Stories and science behind cal

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· 请教一个物理问题

· Statistics: What they attract?

【Language(18)】

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【Economics(7)】

· The Purpose of Equity, Diversi

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· Pension system and fertility

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· Karl Marx and the Labor Theory

· A note on labor theory of valu

【Finance(3)】

· How hard is it to establish a

· How inflation enriches politic

· Finance: A New Theoretical Fou

【Virus and vaccine (2)】

· Natural vaccines and artificia

· Why was the Spanish Flu so dea

· COVID UPDATE: What is the trut

· The impacts of vaccines on hum

· Vaccine effectiveness in Canad

· 李跃华医生是怎么想到用苯酚治疗

· On statistics related to vacci

【Science (14)】

· How many people died from COVI

· On the measurement of expected

· How long is a day on Venus?

· Why is the air pressure on Ven

· Insightful writing on hydrogen

· Some questions about blood bra

· Mortality rates by month

【Language (17)】

· 柳的故事

· 兔年话兔

· 兔年为什么是卯年？

· Feud and Feudal

· 機遇和覬覦

· air, hair, stair

· Fantasy and fantastic

· 熊在不同语言中的发音

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【Quantum theory (2)】

· “Parting the Red Sea" Effect

· opposite of hidden variable: N

· Empirical verification of quan

· A playlist on quantum spin

· Great Physicists and Overhyped

· A good video touching on measu

· On Bell's Inequality

· Fine Structure Constant

· How does Lagrangian turn into

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【Economics (6)】

· On Inequality (Revised)

· Inside Job and Predator Nation

· Insights from GDI

· Economy and Society by Max Web

· On Paul Samuelson

· What is the energy return from

· The power structure of a socie

· How Economics Became a Mathema

· On the current state of econom

【Reading (6)】

· public’s distrust to authoriti

· Old Testament

· Reading Karl Marx

· US bombed the Nord Stream Pipe

· The Thin Red Line by James Jon

· The Call of the Wild by Jack L

· Speakable and unspeakable in q

· When Life Nearly Died

· The Rise and Fall of American

· Cells, gels and the engines of

· A song from my son

· 儿子写给我的歌

· Video and writing by my daught

· A song from my kids as a gift

· Ace of Spades

· Mother's Day: A song to m

【Science (13)】

· A reflection on QR code

· Why water is not acidic?

· The timing of the great extinc

· The Carrying Capacity of the P

· A unified understanding of bod

· Carbon dioxide and global temp

· Warburg effect and cancer trea

· amino acids and their genetic

【Language (16)】

· 词汇的来源：从具体到抽象

· Orient rising and occident dec

· 目的和墓地

· war: ‘获‘， ’和 ‘， ’祸 ‘

· 朝夕和潮汐

· 每，梅，霉，海

· 平庸之恶，还是恶之平常？

· Easter on East

【Poems(14)】

· 势力和势利

· A Tourist from Heaven

· Morning after mourning

· 努力的奴隶

· Excursion and incursion

· Who want the pandemic to end?

· Left wing and right wing

· Lion king and lion

【science (12)】

· AT and CG: What are their perc

· What generates the earth’s mag

· Gilbert Ling: A Great Pioneer

· What do physical constants mea

【Demographics】

· 民族要振兴，人口要控制？

· 十个孩子的家

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· Long reign of the boomers

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· Leg and legal

· Chariot （車）

· 时辰和生肖

· Statistics, languages and huma

【Conservation Law】

· Zero sum game is conservation

· The long reach of the conserva

· George Gammon

· There is no liberty without sl

· The conservation law of energy

· The long arm of conservation l

【Poems (13)】

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· You have to be right to have r

· Crime and Criminal

· Omnipotent and impotent

· Fort and comfort

· Secret and secretary

· When a sunrise cause turns int

· New World Order

【Language (14)】

· River and rival

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· Xiwangmu (西王母）: Folklore a

· 什么是安宁？

· Animal and animosity

· Savage, salvage, save

【Science (11)】

· Why are the primary colors red

· Humans and germs: A systematic

· Why Demonize Carbon?

· Evidence in Scientific Researc

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· Action or inaction

· Small molecules as catalysts

· A question about ivermectin (a

· Weakness in left arm and heart

【Reading (5)】

· The fourth phase of water by G

· Critique of Hegel's Philo

· On the Jewish Question by Karl

· The Great Leveler: Violence an

· The Case Against Education by

· Some information on Korean War

· Monopoly Capital By Baran and

· Iron Law of Oligarchy

· Richard Cantillon: An Essay on

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· Double consonants

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· 要，腰，west, waist

· 山口 Yamaguchi

【science (10)】

· How to reduce noise from refri

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· East, Easter, yeast

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· 神话：神秘的史话

【Reading (4)】

· Dark Matter, a movie

· Politician or scientist: Who l

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· One flew over the cuckoo'

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· Ulysses by James Joyce

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· On the Theoretical Foundation

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· Diversification and concentrat

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【Health (4)】

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· On depression

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【Poems (12)】

· 努力的奴隶

· Public and publican

· Like and dislike

· Strive and strife

· Story and history

· The rulers and the ruled

· Swamp and wetland

· Old and cold

· Impotent and Important

· Pretend and pretender

【Reading (3)】

· The Problem of China by Bertra

· This side of paradise

· The Unbearable Lightness of Be

· One Hundred Years of Solitude

· Wolyn: The best movie about Wo

· The Unbearable Lightness of Be

· On the origin of species by Ch

· Descent of Man, by Charles Dar

· We and Zamyatin

· Comments on Apocalypse Never

【Non-equilibrium】

· Entropy: In intuitive Introduc

· A reflection on the theories o

· 新能源的社会成本

· 守恒定律在社会科学中的应用

· 有趣的化学

· 当代没有科学大师吗?

【Quantum theory】

· 关于量子理论

· A generalization of quantum th

· Quantum mechanics and Riemann

· What is quantum mechanics

· Where does hope come from

· How solar cells work?

· Why LED lights are more effici

· An Introduction to Quantum Mec

· Fourier transform and uncertai

· 一些物理和数学中基本概念的直观

【Carbon and climate】

· Carbon Dioxide and Carrying Ca

· Noah’s ark and global warming

· Carbon: The Foundation of Life

· George Orwell: The Road to Wig

· Carbon dioxide and vegetation

· Cap and trade

· Ivar Giaever:

· Carbon: The backbone of life

【The Crown (a fiction)】

· The Crown (edited and combined

· The crown (End)

· The Crown (4)

· The Crown (3)

· The Crown (2)

· The Crown (1)

【杂谈 (四)】

· 阿房宫赋和地产业

· Young Marx (青年马克思）

· The philosophy of Wittgenstein

· Panama Canal and Darien Gap

· From No Human Is Illegal to No

· Why all belief systems (except

· A message from my daughter

· On the philosophy of Kant

· Is this true

【Virus and vaccine】

· Is it healthy to sterilize our

· Natural vaccines

· Consensus is not equal to trut

· New York City and coronaviruse

· Human beings as part of the ec

· A re-examination of models of

· Demographics and Pandemics

· The economy of RNA life

· Broad spectrum medicines

· 苯酚用于预防和治疗新冠肺炎

【语言(十一)】

· 词语和方言

· Who is a radical

· Lee and leeway

· Wisdom of the language

· Maked or made: When to break r

· How to take a rest?

· 汉语和英语:读音的相似,可能的原

· 到来和稻麦

· 关于李丹的语言学研究

【科学(九)】

· 天才是什么？

· Power is money

· 薛定谔的猫

· Red and yellow flowers: Which

· The economy of RNA and DNA

· My World View

· How kidneys get rid of acids f

· 李跃华医生注射液中苯酚的含量

· How our bodies maintain PH bal

· Why atomic groups usually are

【诗词(十一）】

· Only the powerful can proclaim

· Looting and ruling

· embryo and embroil

· scold, cold, old

· Gain and lose

· Your pleasure is my pressure

· Are we getting more honest ove

· Understand and overlook

· A homage to our home

· Trees and grasses

【诗词（十）】

· When the sun rises

· Observe and serve

· 对错和是非

· Illusion and disillusion

· V is for Valley

· Word and sword

· Yes is for yesterday

【旅行（二）】

· Koreshan State Park

· How Arizona can sustain such a

· Redwood, Eureka and Klamath (A

· A Short Trip to US

· Two different worlds

· Granville Island

【政治（二）】

· Why is Marxism so popular?

· How much money is in politics?

· The biological impact of the p

· The purpose of government mand

· Why are criminals pampered by

· Why democracy is so fragile?

· 疫情时代的人口

· Difference between US and Cana

· On being conservative

· On Churchill

【科学（八）】

· Why acid can break down molecu

· Blood types, immune systems an

· 实验室制造的新型病毒: 对人类的

· 从侏罗纪公园说起

· How to make revolutionary idea

· On clean energy industries

· Measurement of fertility rate

【诗词(九)】

· Victor or victim

· Lie, belie, believe

· The most healthy food

【读书(二)】

· Fall of civilizations podcast

· 读《夏商新考》

· East wind: Perspectives from t

· Elizabeth Barrett Browning: He

· Congo by Michael Crichton

· Kipling as a parent

· Some books about economics and

· How good were Charles Pearson’

· Brave New World

【语言(十)】

· 慕容和 moron

· Pastor: The lord of pasture

· 打 call 的英语是什么？

· What is knowledge? What is fat

· Now and yesterday

· 桑干河和 sungei

· Farsi, Parsi and Persian

· A fancy meal

· Kayaking in Ucluelet

· Where is the exit?

· Your fear is smarter than you

· Be a tourist in our own city

· How many red rivers are there?

· Differential impacts of slow a

· Getting bored?

· The story of civilization (Com

· Hillbilly Elegy

· Bernhard Riemann: Turning poin

· Galbraith on new ideas

· Psychology of finance (Some q

· Timeline by Michael Crichton

· Reading Money: Whence it came,

· Capitalism, socialism and demo

· Music: a mathematical offering

· A book about Riemann hypothesi

【经济（五）】

· To maximize utility is to maxi

· Pareto optimal: Whose optimal?

· comment on Nobel Prize in Econ

· 关于阿罗-德布理论

· Is gold standard viable in tod

· Beyond Growth: Toward a New Ec

· On creating wealth

· Renaissance and Reformation

· 贸易不平衡的起因和解决方法

· On universal basic income

【诗词（八）】

· Apprehend and apprehensive

· Poems about old age

· The default choice is to defau

· Traps and trappings

· No comfort without fort

· Sword and word

【语言（九）】

· 徐江伟的历史理论

· Advice and vice

· Principle, principal and inter

· Illusion and disillusion

· The gorges are gorgeous

· When June met August

· Passive investment strategy an

· The size of your generation an

· Why it is optimal to be optimi

· Debt is an added risk

· Should arithmetic or geometric

· What constitute risk free asse

· A brief introduction to the se

· How to measure return

· The Big Short

【科学（七）】

· What is the meaning of life ex

· 一个不会摄影的人的感悟

· What we need, big data or big

· 进化理论的数学模型

· On inequality

· Grass from the old world and t

· 人类的平均寿命能到一百岁吗？

【人口（三）】

· 中国目前的人口状况

· 一个社会人口中位年龄的趋势

· 鼓励生育的政策能提高生育率吗？

· 政府，家庭，和人口结构

· 从无籽西瓜说起

· 从炒股谈起

· The meaning of life

【诗词（七）】

· Truth in science and religion

· Happy in the backyard

· Nagging from an old man

【语言（八）】

· H, 日和 Helio

· Duo and double means two

· Good, gooder; bad, better

· 相似的形状，相似的读音，相关的

· 新年话创新

· Language, languish, anguish

· How to learn English effective

· 不通则痛，通则不痛

【科学（六）】

· 请教一个统计学的问题

· 数学及其应用

· On amateur and academic resear

【经济（四）】

· How much we need to save for r

· How pension system destroys ou

· Shall we buy insurance?

· An Entropy Theory of Value

· Total value of gold and some

· Mainstream rappers

· A Candle in the Wind

· 缺憾之美

· River of no return

· Raw and refined: Two versions

【经济（三）】

· Own something small wholly or

· Money as a performance enhance

· How much we pay for retirement

· How to reduce anxiety over fi

· How to trim a tree or an econo

· A critique of economic theory

· The most depressing (exciting)

· On the concepts of earning, in

· 数学：应用和乐趣 (修订版)

【诗词（六）】

· Spring up and fall down

· Within and Without

· Heroine and Heroin

【诗词（五）】

· Pet and Pest

· 忘，妄，望

· Envelope and develop

【科学（五）】

· Why highly educated women and

· On the concept of perfectness

· Reflection from a riddle

· On averaging denominators

· Integrating mathematical finan

· 苦难是最好的学校

· Read The need for a new public

· The earth is a gigantic batter

【语言（七）】

· 想象和相象

· 汉语和英语读音的相似

· 双字词的来源

· 标致和婊子

· Credible and Incredible

· 英语和汉语类似的构词法

· Excite and Incite

· Forget and For Get

· Lax and relax

【杂谈（三）】

· 经纬和泾渭

· Heretics are true believers

· Faith or good deeds

· 养儿还是育女？

· Should adult children stay wit

· 女儿制作的录像

· 儿子唱的rap

· 女儿带着女儿来看我们，写的一段

【语言（六）】

· 腿脚和退却

· Copulate, copy, populate

· Emergence and emergency

· I am, I love

· Tart and top, start and stop

· 同样的世界，不同的视角

【诗词（四）】

· On the wisdom of wisdom teeth

· Stalin Rap to Hitler and Mao

· Winter night in the north

【诗词（三）】

· When you try

· Winter in the deep north

· 你家的月亮

· Good bye, my friends

· 当生命之火慢慢熄灭

【语言（五）】

· 兴趣，利益和利息

· Over 和 Overture

· Inspire and Expire

· 哥哥的歌

· Decadence and decay

· 阀：大人物是干什么的？

· 奴隶的心

· 为什么我们喜欢压韵？

【语言（四）】

· Screw and screwed

· Sun and moon

· Norm, normal and Normans

· Bella and bellum

· Two meanings of like

· What is a theory?

· What is man?

【经济（二）】

· Reading James Galbraith’s The

· 为他人作嫁衣裳：贸易强国的共同

· 什么是内需不足？

· 关于持续的贸易不平衡

· A long tradition to connect th

· On persistent trade imbalance

· On green economy

· What are rights: Some reflecti

· On Risk Management

· 怎样计算股票的融资成本和预期回

【杂谈（二）】

· There is more brainwashing in

· 女儿初为人母

· Weather and climate

· 老三的一篇短文

· When defects become an advanta

· Service of necessities and ser

· 女儿的帖子

· 荷花和塘泥

【科学（四）】

· Predictions in social sciences

· 数学的现状和未来

· Social structures: A perspecti

· 温度和情绪（temperature and t

· Learning, memory and decision

· The Least Action Principle: It

· When an electron falls to a pr

· 为什么鱼比肉更容易煮熟？

· 一篇关于The Unity of Science a

【诗词（二）】

· I’d rather

· 池塘里的污泥

· Over and under

· Bond and bondage

· 早点睡觉

· 在我慢慢褪色的世界里

· 狮的低吟，诗的回声

【语言（三）】

· 相似的单词，不同的意思

· 小米和 millet

· 什么是不够

· Easter: 词的来源

· 论所谓的正能量 (On being posit

· Terr 是土地

· Radical 的意思是什么？

· 努力的奴隶

· 风筝：孩子离家

· 落日：致老去的人们

· 杜达尔和玛丽亚

· Driving crazy

· 燃烧和发烧

· 满月的冬夜

· 献给空巢的父母

· Burning and burn out

【健康（三）】

· Mentally stimulating

· On obsessive compulsive disord

· 吃盐和生育

· Ginger and gingerly

· Principle Based Medicine

· Why we need pain?

· 关于自闭症

· 健康的定义

· 针灸的原理

· 情感的守恒定律

【科学（三）】

· 数学及其在社会科学中的应用

· 为什么光线弱的地方会觉得浪漫？

· 美是平均，美是不变的性质

· 颜色和温度

· 简洁就是美

· 栖息之地：健康的树和濒死的树

· 落红不是无情物，化作春泥更护花

· 为什么肥沃的土地上很难找到先锋

· 不平等，效率和系统维护成本

· 生物学的统一理论

【语言（二）】

· 我，倭，和，we

· 鹪鹩，娇娆，wren, 人，文

· 牡丹，Botan, Botany

· 人多则移

· 英语中的几个象形词

· 趣味英语:一个不引人注意的前缀

【科学(二）】

· 基因突变不是完全偶然的

· 生物学和生态学的结合

· Energy consumption and cost

· 人类的平均寿命能到一百岁吗？

· 蝴蝶效应并不存在（兼论偏微分

· 科学与经济学的统一

· 意识: 一个经济学和物理学的理论

· 诺奖得主年龄的变迁

· 学科细分: 社会停滞和衰退的表征

【健康(二）】

· On cortisol and other drugs

· 为什么负氧离子有益健康

· 吃冰和减肥

· 实用生理学

· 为什么晒太阳有好处?

· 为什么练功经常用圆型姿式？

· 脉搏中包含多少信息？

· 外科手术不伤身体吗？

· 头痛医脚

· 怎样才能改善内脏的功能

【人口(二）】

· 政府的法律和自然的法律

· 出生率，平均寿命，生活水平和社

· Holmes stories: The number of

· 个体年龄和社会年龄

· 多子多福

· 人口塌陷: 真正的悲剧

· 华人的高智商和低生育率

· 走出非洲

· 生命就是竞争

· 什么是文化

· 聪明的代价：亚当和夏娃的故事

· 为什么大道至简

· 人口问题文章的一个汇总

· 人口警报?

· 人口红利和人口投资

· 多生孩子: 靠政策,还是靠自己?

· 华而不实和春华秋实

· 劝君莫惜金缕衣，劝君惜取少年时

· 政府越大,出生率越低

· 关于全民基本收入

· 六四还是六三？

· Iron and blood

· 华人参政不够踊跃吗？

· 谁得益于大政府？兼论美国大选

· 印一百元假钞是犯罪，印一万亿真

· 量化宽松和猪肉注水

· 百年大势和英国脱欧

· 龙图腾的含义

· 个体的肥胖和社会的肥胖

· 在什么年纪，做什么事情

· 早晨出行和下午出行

· 男学生在哪里？

· 贱和基本

· 少数的重要性

· 效用函数是什么样子的？

· 经济学理论不应该建立在拓扑学基

· 谁是二十世纪最伟大的经济学家？

· 谁是十九世纪最伟大的经济学家？

· 非平衡态经济学理论简介

· 凯恩斯主义适用的环境

· 从日本的负利率谈起

· 关于利率

· 生产过程各要素之间的关系

· 平衡态和非平衡态经济学

【加拿大】

· 一个登山爱好者的历险（附视频

· 海达圭游记

· 红河谷歌词的变迁

· 洄游的三文鱼

· 碧西(BC)的风景和阿省的风景

· 中加教育比较

· 决定和 decide

· 仇的两种读法

· 小儿子教我读书

· 汉语单词的起源

· 舒服和束缚

· 姓张的人为什么这么多？

· 纽，妞，丑，new, 牛

· 姜太公的故事

· 语言的产生和演变

· 科学研究：缺的是钱吗？

· 数学：应用和乐趣

· 汉字和科学研究

· 社会生物学与社会

· 有趣的化学

· 蒲公英和科学研究

· 当代没有科学大师吗?

· 数学,美和现实

· 现实世界：理解数学的金钥匙

· 按摩脚底为什么这么重要？

· 中医的疗效（续）

· 从蛋白质的不同分解途径看痛风的

· 中医的疗效

· 从哮喘的治疗谈预防

· 实用生理学

· 什么是酸性食物？

· 肥胖和内脏功能

· 呼吸的方法

· 关于抑郁

【科学与经济】

· 阅读The Unity of Science and E

· 信息和熵的等价性

· 知觉的简单和数学的简单

· 一流的研究: 真那么难吗?

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