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		請教一個統計學的問題	2019-01-02 11:00:04

請教一個統計學的問題

一個地方，平均每年只有一天降雨，其他364天都是晴天。有個人預測每天都是晴天，另一個人預測了五天降雨，其中有一天準確。如何計算每個人的預測準確度？

請告訴我預測方法或參考資料。多謝！

jingchen

註冊日期: 2015-11-09
訪問總量: 4,723,569 次

點擊查看我的個人資料

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· Are Liberals less liberal than

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【Reading (7)】

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· On Granger causality

· A note on scarcity

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· Weights of housing in CPI: Can

· Government intervention, and h

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· The Spatial and Temporal Propa

· Mechanical clock and atomic cl

· Astronauts then and now, Scien

· Is Einstein God

· Electromagnetism, relativity a

· Is relativity absolute truth?

· The history of aether

· On Twin Paradox

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【Economics(8)】

· Wealth and income distribution

· A historical and spatial compa

· Stimulating demand is no more

· The function of the economic t

· Questions about GDP, Disposabl

· pension depresses disposal inc

· On the concept of exogeneity a

· The ending of Keynes’ General

· Top ten countries by GDP from

【Language (19)】

· 子，兒，里” ，同源的名詞詞

· 朝夕和 twilight

· 地名和人名

· 復活節話東升西降

· 唯唯諾諾

· 二，選，對

· 泰語和漢語

· 萬眾一心和別有用心

【Poems (15)】

· 理想主義和唯心主義

· Decorating words

· Heaven and Hell

· 失意的詩意

【Science (16)】

· Empiricism and evolutionary th

· America’s mathematics in 1940s

· Measuring pulses

· A fun fact about red blood cel

· What determines the emissivity

· Thermal equilibrium in a gravi

· Why southern hemisphere is col

· Air pressure on rocky planets

· Understanding ideal gas equati

【Carbon and climate (2)】

· CO2 and desertification

· Why carbon tax

· Bankrupting people: The goal o

· On the patterns of global flui

· Stefan-Boltzmann law and the e

· How atmosphere gases affect Ea

· The meanings of different epoc

· The political economy of carbo

· Geological carbon cycles and c

· On global warming

【Science (15)】

· Why is the air pressure on Ven

· Moon and mood

· 中國的曆法

· Stories and science behind cal

· birth control pills increase t

· Some questions about AI

· The mechanism of eye bags

· 請教一個物理問題

· Statistics: What they attract?

【Language(18)】

· What does anti mean?

· A post from my daughter

· 茶几和自己

· 主，住，駐，往

· 嶄新的世界欣欣向榮

【Economics(7)】

· The Purpose of Equity, Diversi

· 價值理論

· Withering Ecological Economics

· On the rapid change of Keynes’

· Why are dominant social theori

· Pension system and fertility

· The profit potential of a soci

· Potential energy and different

· Karl Marx and the Labor Theory

· A note on labor theory of valu

【Finance(3)】

· Contribution years for full CP

· Societal Risk

· The life of Ed Thorp

· How hard is it to establish a

· How inflation enriches politic

· Finance: A New Theoretical Fou

【Virus and vaccine (2)】

· Natural vaccines and artificia

· Why was the Spanish Flu so dea

· COVID UPDATE: What is the trut

· The impacts of vaccines on hum

· Vaccine effectiveness in Canad

· 李躍華醫生是怎麼想到用苯酚治療

· On statistics related to vacci

【Science (14)】

· How many people died from COVI

· On the measurement of expected

· How long is a day on Venus?

· Why is the air pressure on Ven

· Insightful writing on hydrogen

· Some questions about blood bra

· Mortality rates by month

【Language (17)】

· 柳的故事

· 兔年話兔

· 兔年為什麼是卯年？

· Feud and Feudal

· 機遇和覬覦

· air, hair, stair

· Fantasy and fantastic

· 熊在不同語言中的發音

· 英語詞 elephant 分析

【Quantum theory (2)】

· The percentage of spins in the

· “Parting the Red Sea" Effect

· opposite of hidden variable: N

· Empirical verification of quan

· A playlist on quantum spin

· Great Physicists and Overhyped

· A good video touching on measu

· On Bell's Inequality

· Fine Structure Constant

· How does Lagrangian turn into

【Economics (6)】

· On Inequality (Revised)

· Inside Job and Predator Nation

· Insights from GDI

· Economy and Society by Max Web

· On Paul Samuelson

· What is the energy return from

· The power structure of a socie

· How Economics Became a Mathema

· On the current state of econom

【Reading (6)】

· public’s distrust to authoriti

· Old Testament

· Reading Karl Marx

· US bombed the Nord Stream Pipe

· The Thin Red Line by James Jon

· The Call of the Wild by Jack L

· Speakable and unspeakable in q

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· Cells, gels and the engines of

· A song from my son

· 兒子寫給我的歌

· Video and writing by my daught

· A song from my kids as a gift

· Ace of Spades

· Mother's Day: A song to m

【Science (13)】

· A reflection on QR code

· Why water is not acidic?

· The timing of the great extinc

· The Carrying Capacity of the P

· A unified understanding of bod

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· Warburg effect and cancer trea

· amino acids and their genetic

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· 目的和墓地

· war: ‘獲‘， ’和 ‘， ’禍 ‘

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· Easter on East

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· A Tourist from Heaven

· Morning after mourning

· 努力的奴隸

· Excursion and incursion

· Who want the pandemic to end?

· Left wing and right wing

· Lion king and lion

【science (12)】

· AT and CG: What are their perc

· What generates the earth’s mag

· Gilbert Ling: A Great Pioneer

· What do physical constants mea

【Demographics】

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· 民族要振興，人口要控制？

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· Xiwangmu (西王母）: Folklore a

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· Animal and animosity

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· Humans and germs: A systematic

· Why Demonize Carbon?

· Evidence in Scientific Researc

· The wisdom of the body: Immune

· Action or inaction

· Small molecules as catalysts

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· Weakness in left arm and heart

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· The fourth phase of water by G

· Critique of Hegel's Philo

· On the Jewish Question by Karl

· The Great Leveler: Violence an

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· Some information on Korean War

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· Iron Law of Oligarchy

· Richard Cantillon: An Essay on

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· Kill and skill, laughter and s

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· Double consonants

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【science (10)】

· How to reduce noise from refri

· How do mRNA vaccines work?

· On Norbert Wiener

· What is the goal of scientific

· New developments on the origin

· Shall we immunize for every di

· Prime Numbers and the Riemann

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· Measured and actual expected l

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· Bear, ours and ursus

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· East, Easter, yeast

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· Poplar, popular, populus, popu

· The wonder of the promised lan

· Alexander the Great

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· Seima-Turbino and ancient Chin

· 麥與來：小麥的傳播

· 遠古簡史

· Why is the pincer formation so

· 春秋時代的幾個人名

· 神話：神秘的史話

【Reading (4)】

· Dark Matter, a movie

· Politician or scientist: Who l

· The Bit Player: A Documentary

· One flew over the cuckoo'

· The Trial by Franz Kafka

· Ulysses by James Joyce

· The Economic Consequence of th

· The Philosophy of Nietzsche by

· The Philosophy of Schopenhauer

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· Hedge: The best hedging

· On the Theoretical Foundation

· John Williams and The Theory o

· What is finance?

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· On the Broad Impacts of Pensio

· Diversification and concentrat

· On equity owners and debt owne

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· Acupuncture points and meridia

· On depression

· Notes on physiology and health

· Omicron spreading in nations w

· Humans and germs: An ecosystem

【Poems (12)】

· 努力的奴隸

· Public and publican

· Like and dislike

· Strive and strife

· Story and history

· The rulers and the ruled

· Swamp and wetland

· Old and cold

· Impotent and Important

· Pretend and pretender

【Reading (3)】

· The Problem of China by Bertra

· This side of paradise

· The Unbearable Lightness of Be

· One Hundred Years of Solitude

· Wolyn: The best movie about Wo

· The Unbearable Lightness of Be

· On the origin of species by Ch

· Descent of Man, by Charles Dar

· We and Zamyatin

· Comments on Apocalypse Never

【Non-equilibrium】

· Entropy: In intuitive Introduc

· A reflection on the theories o

· 新能源的社會成本

· 守恆定律在社會科學中的應用

· 有趣的化學

· 當代沒有科學大師嗎?

【Quantum theory】

· 關於量子理論

· A generalization of quantum th

· Quantum mechanics and Riemann

· What is quantum mechanics

· Where does hope come from

· How solar cells work?

· Why LED lights are more effici

· An Introduction to Quantum Mec

· Fourier transform and uncertai

· 一些物理和數學中基本概念的直觀

【Carbon and climate】

· Carbon Dioxide and Carrying Ca

· Noah’s ark and global warming

· Carbon: The Foundation of Life

· George Orwell: The Road to Wig

· Carbon dioxide and vegetation

· Cap and trade

· Ivar Giaever:

· Carbon: The backbone of life

【The Crown (a fiction)】

· The Crown (edited and combined

· The crown (End)

· The Crown (4)

· The Crown (3)

· The Crown (2)

· The Crown (1)

【雜談 (四)】

· Young Marx (青年馬克思）

· The philosophy of Wittgenstein

· Panama Canal and Darien Gap

· From No Human Is Illegal to No

· Why all belief systems (except

· A message from my daughter

· On the philosophy of Kant

· Is this true

· 文亮華夏，武暗九州

【Virus and vaccine】

· Is it healthy to sterilize our

· Natural vaccines

· Consensus is not equal to trut

· New York City and coronaviruse

· Human beings as part of the ec

· A re-examination of models of

· Demographics and Pandemics

· The economy of RNA life

· Broad spectrum medicines

· 苯酚用於預防和治療新冠肺炎

【語言(十一)】

· 詞語和方言

· Who is a radical

· Lee and leeway

· Wisdom of the language

· Maked or made: When to break r

· How to take a rest?

· 漢語和英語:讀音的相似,可能的原

· 到來和稻麥

· 關於李丹的語言學研究

【科學(九)】

· 天才是什麼？

· Power is money

· 薛定諤的貓

· Red and yellow flowers: Which

· The economy of RNA and DNA

· My World View

· How kidneys get rid of acids f

· 李躍華醫生注射液中苯酚的含量

· How our bodies maintain PH bal

· Why atomic groups usually are

【詩詞(十一）】

· Only the powerful can proclaim

· Looting and ruling

· embryo and embroil

· scold, cold, old

· Gain and lose

· Your pleasure is my pressure

· Are we getting more honest ove

· Understand and overlook

· A homage to our home

· Trees and grasses

【詩詞（十）】

· When the sun rises

· Observe and serve

· 對錯和是非

· Illusion and disillusion

· V is for Valley

· Word and sword

· Yes is for yesterday

【旅行（二）】

· Mosquitos at Emory campus

· Mexico impression

· Pyramids outside Mexico City

· Road to Mexico City

· Koreshan State Park

· How Arizona can sustain such a

· Redwood, Eureka and Klamath (A

· A Short Trip to US

· Two different worlds

· Granville Island

【政治（二）】

· Why is Marxism so popular?

· How much money is in politics?

· The biological impact of the p

· The purpose of government mand

· Why are criminals pampered by

· Why democracy is so fragile?

· 疫情時代的人口

· Difference between US and Cana

· On being conservative

· On Churchill

【科學（八）】

· Why acid can break down molecu

· Blood types, immune systems an

· 實驗室製造的新型病毒: 對人類的

· 從侏羅紀公園說起

· How to make revolutionary idea

· On clean energy industries

· Measurement of fertility rate

【詩詞(九)】

· Victor or victim

· Lie, belie, believe

· The most healthy food

【讀書(二)】

· Fall of civilizations podcast

· 讀《夏商新考》

· East wind: Perspectives from t

· Elizabeth Barrett Browning: He

· Congo by Michael Crichton

· Kipling as a parent

· Some books about economics and

· How good were Charles Pearson’

· Brave New World

【語言(十)】

· 慕容和 moron

· Pastor: The lord of pasture

· 打 call 的英語是什麼？

· What is knowledge? What is fat

· Now and yesterday

· 桑乾河和 sungei

· Farsi, Parsi and Persian

· A fancy meal

· Kayaking in Ucluelet

· Where is the exit?

· Your fear is smarter than you

· Be a tourist in our own city

· How many red rivers are there?

· Differential impacts of slow a

· Getting bored?

· The story of civilization (Com

· Hillbilly Elegy

· Bernhard Riemann: Turning poin

· Galbraith on new ideas

· Psychology of finance (Some q

· Timeline by Michael Crichton

· Reading Money: Whence it came,

· Capitalism, socialism and demo

· Music: a mathematical offering

· A book about Riemann hypothesi

【經濟（五）】

· To maximize utility is to maxi

· Pareto optimal: Whose optimal?

· comment on Nobel Prize in Econ

· 關於阿羅-德布理論

· Is gold standard viable in tod

· Beyond Growth: Toward a New Ec

· On creating wealth

· Renaissance and Reformation

· 貿易不平衡的起因和解決方法

· On universal basic income

【詩詞（八）】

· Apprehend and apprehensive

· Poems about old age

· The default choice is to defau

· Traps and trappings

· No comfort without fort

· Sword and word

【語言（九）】

· 徐江偉的歷史理論

· Advice and vice

· Principle, principal and inter

· Illusion and disillusion

· The gorges are gorgeous

· When June met August

· Passive investment strategy an

· The size of your generation an

· Why it is optimal to be optimi

· Debt is an added risk

· Should arithmetic or geometric

· What constitute risk free asse

· A brief introduction to the se

· How to measure return

· The Big Short

【科學（七）】

· What is the meaning of life ex

· 一個不會攝影的人的感悟

· What we need, big data or big

· 進化理論的數學模型

· On inequality

· Grass from the old world and t

· 人類的平均壽命能到一百歲嗎？

【人口（三）】

· 中國目前的人口狀況

· 一個社會人口中位年齡的趨勢

· 鼓勵生育的政策能提高生育率嗎？

· 政府，家庭，和人口結構

· 從無籽西瓜說起

· 從炒股談起

· The meaning of life

【詩詞（七）】

· Truth in science and religion

· Happy in the backyard

· Nagging from an old man

【語言（八）】

· H, 日和 Helio

· Duo and double means two

· Good, gooder; bad, better

· 相似的形狀，相似的讀音，相關的

· 新年話創新

· Language, languish, anguish

· How to learn English effective

· 不通則痛，通則不痛

【科學（六）】

· 請教一個統計學的問題

· 數學及其應用

· On amateur and academic resear

【經濟（四）】

· How much we need to save for r

· How pension system destroys ou

· Shall we buy insurance?

· An Entropy Theory of Value

· Total value of gold and some

· Mainstream rappers

· A Candle in the Wind

· 缺憾之美

· River of no return

· Raw and refined: Two versions

【經濟（三）】

· Own something small wholly or

· Money as a performance enhance

· How much we pay for retirement

· How to reduce anxiety over fi

· How to trim a tree or an econo

· A critique of economic theory

· The most depressing (exciting)

· On the concepts of earning, in

· 數學：應用和樂趣 (修訂版)

【詩詞（六）】

· Spring up and fall down

· Within and Without

· Heroine and Heroin

【詩詞（五）】

· Pet and Pest

· 忘，妄，望

· Envelope and develop

【科學（五）】

· Why highly educated women and

· On the concept of perfectness

· Reflection from a riddle

· On averaging denominators

· Integrating mathematical finan

· 苦難是最好的學校

· Read The need for a new public

· The earth is a gigantic batter

【語言（七）】

· 想象和相象

· 漢語和英語讀音的相似

· 雙字詞的來源

· 標緻和婊子

· Credible and Incredible

· 英語和漢語類似的構詞法

· Excite and Incite

· Forget and For Get

· Lax and relax

【雜談（三）】

· 經緯和涇渭

· Heretics are true believers

· Faith or good deeds

· 養兒還是育女？

· Should adult children stay wit

· 女兒製作的錄像

· 兒子唱的rap

· 女兒帶着女兒來看我們，寫的一段

【語言（六）】

· 腿腳和退卻

· Copulate, copy, populate

· Emergence and emergency

· I am, I love

· Tart and top, start and stop

· 同樣的世界，不同的視角

【詩詞（四）】

· On the wisdom of wisdom teeth

· Stalin Rap to Hitler and Mao

· Winter night in the north

【詩詞（三）】

· When you try

· Winter in the deep north

· 你家的月亮

· Good bye, my friends

· 當生命之火慢慢熄滅

【語言（五）】

· 興趣，利益和利息

· Over 和 Overture

· Inspire and Expire

· 哥哥的歌

· Decadence and decay

· 閥：大人物是幹什麼的？

· 奴隸的心

· 為什麼我們喜歡壓韻？

【語言（四）】

· Screw and screwed

· Sun and moon

· Norm, normal and Normans

· Bella and bellum

· Two meanings of like

· What is a theory?

· What is man?

【經濟（二）】

· Reading James Galbraith’s The

· 為他人作嫁衣裳：貿易強國的共同

· 什麼是內需不足？

· 關於持續的貿易不平衡

· A long tradition to connect th

· On persistent trade imbalance

· On green economy

· What are rights: Some reflecti

· On Risk Management

· 怎樣計算股票的融資成本和預期回

【雜談（二）】

· There is more brainwashing in

· 女兒初為人母

· Weather and climate

· 老三的一篇短文

· When defects become an advanta

· Service of necessities and ser

· 女兒的帖子

· 荷花和塘泥

【科學（四）】

· Predictions in social sciences

· 數學的現狀和未來

· Social structures: A perspecti

· 溫度和情緒（temperature and t

· Learning, memory and decision

· The Least Action Principle: It

· When an electron falls to a pr

· 為什麼魚比肉更容易煮熟？

· 一篇關於The Unity of Science a

【詩詞（二）】

· I’d rather

· 池塘里的污泥

· Over and under

· Bond and bondage

· 早點睡覺

· 在我慢慢褪色的世界裡

· 獅的低吟，詩的回聲

【語言（三）】

· 相似的單詞，不同的意思

· 小米和 millet

· 什麼是不夠

· Easter: 詞的來源

· 論所謂的正能量 (On being posit

· Terr 是土地

· Radical 的意思是什麼？

· 努力的奴隸

· 風箏：孩子離家

· 落日：致老去的人們

· 杜達爾和瑪麗亞

· Driving crazy

· 燃燒和發燒

· 滿月的冬夜

· 獻給空巢的父母

· Burning and burn out

【健康（三）】

· Mentally stimulating

· On obsessive compulsive disord

· 吃鹽和生育

· Ginger and gingerly

· Principle Based Medicine

· Why we need pain?

· 關於自閉症

· 健康的定義

· 針灸的原理

· 情感的守恆定律

【科學（三）】

· 數學及其在社會科學中的應用

· 為什麼光線弱的地方會覺得浪漫？

· 美是平均，美是不變的性質

· 顏色和溫度

· 簡潔就是美

· 棲息之地：健康的樹和瀕死的樹

· 落紅不是無情物，化作春泥更護花

· 為什麼肥沃的土地上很難找到先鋒

· 不平等，效率和系統維護成本

· 生物學的統一理論

【語言（二）】

· 我，倭，和，we

· 鷦鷯，嬌嬈，wren, 人，文

· 牡丹，Botan, Botany

· 人多則移

· 英語中的幾個象形詞

· 趣味英語:一個不引人注意的前綴

【科學(二）】

· 基因突變不是完全偶然的

· 生物學和生態學的結合

· Energy consumption and cost

· 人類的平均壽命能到一百歲嗎？

· 蝴蝶效應並不存在（兼論偏微分

· 科學與經濟學的統一

· 意識: 一個經濟學和物理學的理論

· 諾獎得主年齡的變遷

· 學科細分: 社會停滯和衰退的表徵

【健康(二）】

· On cortisol and other drugs

· 為什麼負氧離子有益健康

· 吃冰和減肥

· 實用生理學

· 為什麼曬太陽有好處?

· 為什麼練功經常用圓型姿式？

· 脈搏中包含多少信息？

· 外科手術不傷身體嗎？

· 頭痛醫腳

· 怎樣才能改善內臟的功能

【人口(二）】

· 政府的法律和自然的法律

· 出生率，平均壽命，生活水平和社

· Holmes stories: The number of

· 個體年齡和社會年齡

· 多子多福

· 人口塌陷: 真正的悲劇

· 華人的高智商和低生育率

· 走出非洲

· 生命就是競爭

· 什麼是文化

· 聰明的代價：亞當和夏娃的故事

· 為什麼大道至簡

· 人口問題文章的一個匯總

· 人口警報?

· 人口紅利和人口投資

· 多生孩子: 靠政策,還是靠自己?

· 華而不實和春華秋實

· 勸君莫惜金縷衣，勸君惜取少年時

· 政府越大,出生率越低

· 關於全民基本收入

· 六四還是六三？

· Iron and blood

· 華人參政不夠踴躍嗎？

· 誰得益於大政府？兼論美國大選

· 印一百元假鈔是犯罪，印一萬億真

· 量化寬鬆和豬肉注水

· 百年大勢和英國脫歐

· 龍圖騰的含義

· 個體的肥胖和社會的肥胖

· 在什麼年紀，做什麼事情

· 早晨出行和下午出行

· 男學生在哪裡？

· 賤和基本

· 少數的重要性

· 效用函數是什麼樣子的？

· 經濟學理論不應該建立在拓撲學基

· 誰是二十世紀最偉大的經濟學家？

· 誰是十九世紀最偉大的經濟學家？

· 非平衡態經濟學理論簡介

· 凱恩斯主義適用的環境

· 從日本的負利率談起

· 關於利率

· 生產過程各要素之間的關係

· 平衡態和非平衡態經濟學

【加拿大】

· 一個登山愛好者的歷險（附視頻

· 海達圭遊記

· 紅河谷歌詞的變遷

· 洄游的三文魚

· 碧西(BC)的風景和阿省的風景

· 中加教育比較

· 決定和 decide

· 仇的兩種讀法

· 小兒子教我讀書

· 漢語單詞的起源

· 舒服和束縛

· 姓張的人為什麼這麼多？

· 紐，妞，丑，new, 牛

· 姜太公的故事

· 語言的產生和演變

· 科學研究：缺的是錢嗎？

· 數學：應用和樂趣

· 漢字和科學研究

· 社會生物學與社會

· 有趣的化學

· 蒲公英和科學研究

· 當代沒有科學大師嗎?

· 數學,美和現實

· 現實世界：理解數學的金鑰匙

· 按摩腳底為什麼這麼重要？

· 中醫的療效（續）

· 從蛋白質的不同分解途徑看痛風的

· 中醫的療效

· 從哮喘的治療談預防

· 實用生理學

· 什麼是酸性食物？

· 肥胖和內臟功能

· 呼吸的方法

· 關於抑鬱

【科學與經濟】

· 閱讀The Unity of Science and E

· 信息和熵的等價性

· 知覺的簡單和數學的簡單

· 一流的研究: 真那麼難嗎?

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