股市進入泡沫還是餘威繼續強盛

多次成功預測股市和資產泡沫的記錄，讓席勒今年獲得了諾貝爾經濟學獎。那麼，面對一再創新高的股市，面對一片片漲聲之後的股市，投資者開始有點緊張：股市是不是又一次產生了泡沫，是不是又到了該破滅的時候？

應該怎樣判斷當前的股市行情？是該繼續持有，甚至是加倉？還是撤？

股市價格比較高了，是大家的共識。是不是到了泡沫該破滅的時候？比較少的人會給予肯定的答案。經濟復甦還處於初期，股市先行也很正常。只是，有些部分還是有比較明顯的泡沫，投資者，在這個階段，以謹慎樂觀為妙。

如果你是比較保守的投資者，選擇股價對應的市盈率不是很高的藍籌股，在目前階段持有是比較好的選擇。如果你是比較喜歡冒險的投機者，那些暫時被殺下來的高價股裡面，或許也有比較好的投資機會。再者，JCP，TSLA， 甚至是兩房股票，似乎也可以小賭一回。

一般來講，股市不可能直上九重霄。估計，在隨後的幾個月，回調的機會比較大。如果你喜歡等待，也可以等到回調之後再加股。

不管怎麼樣，下面兩篇文章值得你好好讀讀。

The next 10 investment bubbles

11/23/13 | Marketwatch

Bloomberg Asset bubbles are funny things. You're not sure something is in a bubble until it pops. Ever since investors first bid up the price of tulip bulbs to ridiculous levels back in the early 1600s, one thing many economists seem to agree on is that pre-popped bubbles defy formal identification. This past year Princeton economist Paul Krugman said there's no standard definition for them. Last week, Columbia University economist Guillermo Calvo said at a San Francisco Fed conference that we still don't have a theory about them. "Irrational Exuberance" author and Yale economist Robert Shiller, who recently said stock prices are high but not at alarming levels, called market bubbles a form of "social mental illness." While we may not have an academic definition of bubbles, investors certainly have fresh memories of getting burned by the U.S. housing bubble in 2006 and the dot.com bubble in 1999. With this in mind, MarketWatch looked at 10 assets that are showing that sort of frothiness that could indicate a bubble in the making.

--Wallace Witkowski

1. U.S. stocks lack a 'wall of worry'

The bull market is almost five years old, and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index SPX) is up around 170% since the March 2009 low, making this once-raging bull now an aging one. Since the last true correction of at least 10% ended in June 2012, the S&P 500 has gained almost 40%. Corrections are healthy for markets -- they help to reset investor expectations -- and such a long run without a reversal is concerning. The stock market might well have had more typical ups and downs if not for a Federal Reserve intent on boosting stocks and other assets by suppressing interest rates. Now corporate earnings growth is slowing, and the Fed is close to scaling back, or "tapering," the bond-buying program that has kept yields artificially low and put a floor under the market. Yet many investors are ignoring the caution signs. The market needs a "Wall of Worry" to climb, but retail buyers have become brave and confident -- two qualities investors should avoid except at points of extreme pessimism, which this is surely not.

The only thing we have to fear about the current U.S. market is the lack of fear. It's time to invoke Bob Farrell's Market Rule No. 5: "The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom," the respected former Merrill Lynch market tactician noted. Tellingly, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's favored multi-asset measure of global investor sentiment, the "Bull & Bear Index," is nearing a sell signal.

--Jonathan Burton

2. 'Momentum' stocks

A rush of money into equities has propelled a handful of stocks to dizzying heights, creating a new class of momentum plays such Tesla Motors Inc.TSLA) and Facebook Inc. FB) that some find hard to justify. Tesla and Facebook shares have behaved as if they were on Red Bull for most of this year, far outpacing the S&P 500, which rallied 24% year to date as of Friday. Tesla surged 307% while Facebook soared almost 80%. But not everyone wants to jump on that turbo bandwagon. Famed short seller Jim Chanos of Kynikos Associates is staying far away from Tesla and Facebook, calling Tesla a "cult stock" that's risen on speculation rather than fundamentals. Jamie Albertine, an analyst at Stifel Equity Research, also believes Tesla's stock rally is overdone. "I would feel different about the company if it wants to be a niche luxury car manufacturer. Instead it's trying to become a high volume manufacturer," he said. As for Facebook, MarketWatch columnist Mark Hulbert says the social networking company's stock is overvalued by 45%. "Even if Facebook is able to live up to Wall Street's estimates (a big if, I might add), and assuming the same [price-to-sales ratio] of 6.44 as in my previous example, Facebook's market cap in early 2017 would be $110.1 billion. That's nearly 10% below its current market cap," he recently wrote.. 

--Sue Chang

3. Bitcoin

Bitcoin prices skyrocketed nearly 76% in November through Friday, and they're up more than 20 times this year, breaking through records at a pace that has many market participants bracing for a correction. "If you look at the history of bitcoin trading, it's a series of bubbles, corrections and setting of a new floor," said Barry Silbert, founder and chief investment officer of SecondMarket, which launched a bitcoin trust in late September. In response to whether bitcoin is in bubble territory, he said: "Looking at a price chart, it's hard to say that we're not." Several factors have come together. Demand for bitcoin has surged in China, making the Chinese bitcoin exchange BTC China the most heavily traded in terms of 30-day volume. The Chinese yuan now makes up about 50% of trading on exchanges, up from single digits earlier in 2013, said Greg Schvey, head of research at the Genesis Block, a bitcoin research firm. 

The virtual currency received a credibility boost in October after federal authorities shut down the online drug market Silk Road, which exclusively accepted bitcoin. "You saw a lot of high net worth individuals and institutions start to buy after that," said Jaron Lukasiewicz, chief executive of Coinsetter. And venture-capital firms have raised the virtual currency's profile by pouring money into bitcoin companies, including $9 million in Series A funding for Circle, a company that aims to make bitcoin payments easier. Interest in SecondMarket's Bitcoin Investment Trust could also be driving prices higher. The trust has about $15 million in assets under management, hitting its year-end target in just four weeks, Silbert said. At its launch, the trust had established buying relationships with more than 100 players in the bitcoin space in order to meet demand. 

--Saumya Vaishampayan

4. Top Scotch

Talk about a liquid asset. In the past few years, rare whiskies, especially Scottish single malts, have become a hot collectible category. Whisky Highland, a Scottish company that tracks auction prices and compiles an index of the top-selling Scotches, says prices have soared by 170% since the end of 2008. And with buyers purchasing more than $18 million worth of bottles at auction in 2012 and with the rarest of whiskies routinely fetching four and five-figure prices, some collectors say the market has nowhere to go but up. But others caution we could be seeing the beginning of a whisky bubble, particularly as more distilleries release limited-edition bottles and potentially push the supply beyond the demand. Complicating the issue: A lot of these limited-edition whiskies may not cut it from a connoisseur's standpoint, says Noah Rothbaum, editor-in-chief of Liquor.com. "Just because something costs $5,000 doesn't mean it's an amazing whisky," he says. The chart at left shows the increase since 2008 for the Investment Grade Scotch 1000 index, on a monthly basis.

--Charles Passy

5. London property prices

It's been some incredible years, not to talk about some fantastic past months, for the London housing market. In October alone, asking prices in the capital soared by 10% and with continued upbeat data about the U.K. economy, some analysts fear we're entering a dangerous boom-bust cycle. "The key thing in London is that demand exceeds supply and there isn't enough new supply coming on tap," said Frances Hudson, global thematic strategist at Standard Life Investments.

But it's not just domestic demand that drives London real-estate prices. Foreign demand is also heating up as wealthy overseas buyers look for safe-haven investments. While the demand for London location doesn't seem to be slowing anytime soon, the developments in interest rates could cap the impressive growth rates. "One thing to consider is what happens with interest rates. If the U.S. tapers and the U.K. remains on a sustainable growth path, you could see rates rise and it would be more expensive to get a mortgage. That would take some of heat out of the property market," Hudson said. 

--Sara Sjolin

6. China's housing market

In October, new home prices in 100 Chinese cities rose 10.7% on average, year-on-year, according to data tracker China Real Estate Index System. That was the highest growth rate since records became available in June 2011. "Fears of a renewed housing bubble are probably driving the central bank's credit tightening policies, which may help to stabilize China's growth through into next year, but could also contribute to social unrest," said Usha Haley, a professor at West Virginia University and author of Subsidies to Chinese Industry. "Indeed, many Chinese view investing in the U.S. housing market as a better alternative for their investments, as they also seem to have lost faith in their murky stock market," said Haley. "U.S. housing is viewed as cheaper and better quality. This will have an effect on U.S. property prices, probably artificially boosting them." In the photo, empty apartment developments stand in the city of Ordos, Inner Mongolia on September 12, 2011. 

--Myra Picache

7. Farmland

The price of prime U.S. farmland has been on a tear, particularly in the corn- and soybean-growing heartland, over at least the last decade. That's only accelerated over the last four years, fueled by a combination of soaring commodity prices, low interest rates, and big crops. The average acre of Iowa farm real estate jumped 20% in 2013 to $8,400, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Most experts aren't yet ready to call farmland a bubble, but they see an important test ahead as prices for corn and soybeans retreat from recent highs and interest rates begin to creep higher. If farmland prices continue to soar in the face of such headwinds, it could mark a fundamentally unsupported mania for productive dirt. And it could be capable of presenting a danger to lenders and the overall economy should it burst. Fortunately, experts say there are some preliminary signs that prices are cooling, though it's too early to draw any major conclusions.

--William Watts

8. Cattle and beef futures

Prices for cattle futures have climbed around 9% in the last six months, as tight supplies contributed to record retail beef prices. "Drought and high feed costs have led to a liquidation in the cattle herd during the last few years," and the cattle herd this year fell to its lowest level since 1952, said David Maloni, president of the American Restaurant Association Inc. Live cattle-futures prices hit a high around $1.34 a pound in late October, the highest based on records going back to Nov. 1984, according to FactSet data. "Consumers are still buying beef and we have not seen a real drop off in demand due to pricing," but prices "will reach an inflection point" and consumers may push back from the table and choose alternative meats like chicken and pork, said Kevin Kerr, president and CEO of Kerr Trading International. Maloni said lower feed costs and better pasture conditions this year are encouraging ranchers to start to build their herds. "Eventually, this will lead to better cattle and beef supplies," though maybe not until the back half of 2015 at the earliest, he said.

--Myra Picache

9. Student loan debt

Americans are now carrying more than triple the federal student debt that they had 10 years ago – and the total amount owed to the government topped $1 trillion for the first time in the quarter that ended in June, according to the Department of Education's National Student Loan Data System. They're also increasingly likely to default on that debt. The Education Department says 10% of those who began paying back loans in October 2010 were in default by Sept. 30, 2012. With one exception, the rate has been rising nonstop for almost nine years. Yet investors in the billions of dollars of student loans that are securitized each year (called SLABs) don't seem to be taking much notice. The risk premium that investors are demanding for the triple-A-rated seven-year version has collapsed by more than a third in the past two years and earlier this year hit the lowest level since 2007, according to an index calculated by Barclays. For its part, the U.S. government is increasingly docking Social Security payments from retirees who have fallen behind on student-loan payments--as if millennials won't have enough problems being able to retire. Even Ivy League grads aren't immune to the growing default trend.

--AnnaMaria Andriotis and Silvia Ascarelli

10. Tech start-ups, IPOs

Twitter Inc.'s (TWTR) initial public offering highlighted the strong and growing interest in Internet and social media IPOs. There's been speculation that other startups, such as Square Inc., the mobile payments firm, and Snapchat, the popular messaging service, and social media site Pinterest are also about to take the plunge, and their reported valuations have raised eyebrows. Also, last week, data storage company Box was reported to be picking bankers for its IPO. But while investor worries about social media have eased in the wake of Facebook's strong performance, especially in mobile, it is still an evolving industry that analysts and investors are still struggling to figure out. "It is important to note that because Twitter is so early in its growth, valuation is extremely difficult," Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter told clients in a note on Twitter. He could very well have been talking about other web startups.

--Ben Pimentel

The other side of the bubble story is that there can be plenty of money to be made in the months or years before a bubble bursts. In the famed 1990s bull-market run, U.S. stocks rallied about 70% between 1994 and 1996--and then went on to double before topping out in 2000. For all the warning signs near-vertical ascents give off, plenty of strategists can point to reasons why these rallies are likely to have a bit more life. The prevalence of bubbles, and the stakes at catching them before they burst, has made a cottage industry of bubble watching among financial media, academics, and regulators, and even helped earn Robert Shiller a Nobel Prize. But for all the number crunching, they are inextricably tied to swings in popular sentiment, which makes them tricky to time. Here's what George Soros had to say about them last year: "Financial bubbles are not a purely psychological phenomenon. They have two components: a trend that prevails in reality and a misinterpretation of that trend. " And he added: "I treat bubbles as largely unpredictable."

--Laura Mandaro

應為美國股市大幅走高做好準備

 2013-11-28   華爾街日報

　一些熱門股票今年以來價格上漲了逾一倍。首次公開募股(簡稱IPO)市場如火如荼。散戶投資者正重新入市購買股票。

　　這種“泡沫論”在社交媒體公司Twitter 11月7日上市交易後進一步升溫。當天該公司股價飆升73%。

　　Twitter股價目前的升幅仍達69%。

　　電動汽車公司Tesla Motors 2013年股價飛漲300%，網上零售巨頭亞馬遜(Amazon.com)股價攀升了47%。股市上表現出眾的股票那麼多，以至於人們很容易就淡忘了標準普爾500指數今年已經36次創下紀錄新高，有望實現26%的年增幅——他們還忘記了就在一個月之前，經濟還受到聯邦債務上限危機的威脅。

　　11月14日，美國參議院就珍妮特·耶倫(Janet Yellen)被提名接替本·貝南克(Ben Bernanke)擔任美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve, 簡稱美聯儲）主席舉行確認聽證會。內布拉斯加州共和黨參議員邁克·約翰斯(Mike Johanns)表示，他認為美聯儲寬鬆的貨幣政策正在拉動股市和房地產市場走高。

　　他說：“我漏說了什麼？我認為存在資產泡沫。”

       耶倫回答說：“我們必須對此進行非常仔細的觀察，但我並不將其視為資產泡沫。”

　　其他人也同意耶倫的觀點。嘉信理財(Charles Schwab)首席投資策略師利茲·安·松德斯(Liz Ann Sonders)表示：“坦率地說，這麼多人問起關於泡沫的問題，讓我感覺很困惑。也許是因為近年來我們已經遇到兩次來勢洶洶的泡沫，現在我們更加認同泡沫論了。”嘉信理財管理着2萬億美元的客戶資產。

　　如果觀察更仔細些，我們會看到投資者這一次表現出的是有選擇性的樂觀。

　　洛杉磯57歲的電影製片人戴維·T·弗蘭德利(David T. Friendly)試圖以IPO價格購買Twitter股票，但找不到能讓他買成股票的經紀人。在Twitter首日大漲之後，他說他會等到股票回落時再買。

　　他說，他對股市整體仍然保持警惕。他說：“太讓人緊張了。股市的起伏太大了。”

　　弗蘭德利說，在金融危機之前，他把投資組合的30%至40%配置在股票中。如今他僅將20%的資產投入股市。

　　他說：“夜裡我比以前睡得好多了。”

　　對泡沫論表示懷疑的還有耶魯大學經濟學家羅伯特·席勒(Robert Shiller)。席勒10月份獲得諾貝爾經濟學獎，他曾多次成功地發現資產價格的過度投機。

　　他在互聯網熱潮達到頂峰時出版的《非理性繁榮》(Irrational Exuberance)一書中，準確地預測到股市的崩潰。2005年，他在該書的修訂版中正確地指出，住房市場出現了投機性繁榮。

　　席勒是這樣形容今天的股市的：“市場價格是有一點高，但沒有到我要寫《非理性繁榮》的時候。”

　　他比較喜歡使用的股票估值標準顯示，股市僅僅是偏貴而已，而不是出現了泡沫。

　　投資者常常將股價除以公司既往或預期每股收益，以衡量股票價值。為修勻這些收益數據的周期性峰谷，席勒用標準普爾500指數除以該指數成分股過去10年每股收益的平均值，兩者均經過了通貨膨脹調整。

　　用這種方式來衡量，標準普爾500指數的市盈率約為24.5倍，比1881年以來美國股市16.5倍的平均市盈率高48%左右。

　　這個數字乍聽起來可能很高。但在住房市場泡沫破裂之前，美國股市市盈率曾接近28倍——而在互聯網泡沫最高潮時，市盈率曾達到44倍。

　　席勒表示，雖然股市並沒有出現泡沫，但估值還是很高的。包括席勒在內的許多分析師和經濟學家認為，小投資者如果能在市場上找到價格水分不那麼大的領域，則有望取得不錯的投資回報。

　　說了這麼多，下面我們將指導投資者尋找股市中殘餘的“便宜”領域，我們還將告訴投資者應該警惕些什麼。

　　股市依然昂貴

　　儘管股市看起來比較貴，但我們有許多理由相信本輪牛市會持續下去。最關鍵的是：現在投資者不應該僅僅因為他們認為股市即將出現回落就逃離股市，而是應該為市場可能大幅走高而做好準備。

　　原因之一，散戶投資者才剛剛回歸市場。

　　研究公司晨星(Morningstar)的數據顯示，從今年年初到10月份，投資者已向美國股票共同基金和交易所交易基金(簡稱ETF)投入了1,110億美元，但尚未達到2009年以來撤出股市的資金規模（共計1,340億美元）。

　　晨星的數據顯示，在2000年科技行業泡沫達到頂點之前的四年裡，投資者共向美國股票基金投入4,710億美元。

　　儘管席勒市盈率看起來比較高，但其他衡量股市的指標遠沒有那麼高。比方說，FactSet數據顯示，基於過去12個月每股收益的標準普爾500指數市盈率為15.8倍，而1999年以來的平均市盈率為16.9倍。

　　S&P Capital IQ首席股票策略師薩姆·斯托瓦爾(Sam Stovall)稱，本輪漲勢給人的感覺似乎是已經持續了很久很久，但其實並沒有任何超出普通牛市特徵的地方。（牛市的定義是，以收盤價計算的股市漲幅達到20%，且接下來未出現20%的回落）

　　始於2009年3月9日的漲勢到目前為止已經持續了56個月，漲幅達到166%。在1921年以來的其他16輪牛市中，有六輪牛市持續的時間比本輪牛市長，有五輪牛市的漲幅比本輪牛市大。

　　斯托瓦爾擔心市場可能即將迎來回調（定義是回落幅度達10%-20%），但他指出，標普500指數尚未進入需要拉響警鐘的區間。

　　此外，儘管利率已經上升，但債券價格仍然接近歷史高位，因此不是現金持有者合適的投資對象。債券價格與利率走勢相反。

　　康涅狄格州格林威治(Greenwich)的投資公司AQR Capital Management的主要創始人及執行負責人克利夫·阿內斯(Cliff Asness)稱，他的公司今年年初對股市持適度看漲預期，但現在是“徹底的中性預期”。該公司管理着約900億美元資產。

　　阿內斯認為，經通貨膨脹調整後，一個持股比例60%、持債券比例為40%的典型投資組合未來10年裡年漲幅可能在2.5%左右，而歷史回報率是該漲幅的兩倍左右。

　　席勒為《華爾街日報》進行的一項對長期數據的分析發現，當市場經周期性因素調整後的市盈率達到24.5倍時，其後10年裡扣除通貨膨脹因素的年回報率往往在2.5%左右。

　　由於股票和債券的預期回報率比較低，為退休做準備的投資者將不得不存更多的錢來彌補缺口。比方說，在年回報率為5%時，投資者一個月可以存2,500美元，20年後就會有100萬美元的投資組合。

　　如果回報率為2.5%，則同一名投資者一個月要存3,250美元左右才能達到100萬美元的目標。

　　波士頓投資管理公司GMO的資產配置業務聯席主管本·因克(Ben Inker)稱，如果標準普爾500指數再上漲15%或更多，投資者就應該準備削減他們的美國股票資產配置了。該公司管理着約1,100億美元資產。

　　席勒的研究顯示，如果股價比今天的水平再高15%，而公司收益保持不變，則預計未來10年經通貨膨脹調整後的年回報率會低於1%。這就幾乎與通貨膨脹保值債券的回報率相當了，而後者的風險要小得多。

　　因克說：“我們沒有任何具體的理由去相信股市本周、本月或者到明年會走低。我們只是認為美國股市目前的風險回報比很糟糕。”

　　其他選擇方案

　　存更多的錢是更快增加養老金的唯一有保障的方式，但也有其他方式能夠提高投資者獲得更高回報的幾率。

　　首先，儘管美國股票整體偏貴，但美國也有一些類股（以及除美國之外的所有其他地區的股票）比較便宜。

　　以歐洲為例。洛杉磯管理2.6億美元資產的投資管理公司Cambria Investment Management的首席投資長梅布·費伯(Meb Faber)表示，市場對通貨緊縮的恐懼以及圍繞希臘和其他南歐國家財政問題的持續擔憂對股票構成了打擊，使這些國家的股市處於很長一段時間以來最便宜的水平。

　　費伯發現，如果將席勒的市盈率計算方法運用於其他國家，則希臘截至10月31日的市盈率僅為4倍。愛爾蘭、意大利、葡萄牙和西班牙（它們均為面臨債務問題的歐元區國家）的市盈率均為10倍或以下。

　　就連德國（遠未像其他國家那樣面臨嚴重的經濟問題）的席勒市盈率也僅為15.6倍。

　　中國大陸、台灣和墨西哥等新興市場國家的席勒市盈率也低於美國。

　　費伯說：“世界上多數國家的股市都相當便宜。例外的是美國。”

　　當然，投資者不應該把雞蛋都放在一隻籃子裡，對估值最便宜的國家孤注一擲。最好的選擇或許是投資海外的整體市場指數基金。針對發達市場的選擇方案包括安碩摩根士丹利資本國際歐澳遠東ETF基金(iShares MSCI EAFE ETF)（該基金年費率為0.34%，相當於每投資10,000美元交納34美元管理費）或先鋒富時發達市場ETF基金(Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF)（費率為0.1%）。

　　針對新興市場的先鋒富時新興市場ETF基金(Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF)和安碩核心摩根士丹利資本國際新興市場ETF基金(iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF)的費率均為0.18%。

　　席勒指出，美國的一些類股也比較便宜。席勒發現，根據他的市盈率計算方式，最便宜的類股是能源、消費必需品、醫療和工業股。

　　道富銀行(State Street)提供以特定行業為目標的ETF基金，如能源行業優選SPDR (Energy Select Sector SPDR)或醫療行業優選SPDR (Health Care Select Sector SPDR)，這兩隻基金的年費率均為0.18%。

　　AQR的阿內斯還建議投資者嘗試用其他方式提高投資業績，比如投資所謂的價值股（股價相對於公司收益或 資產而言比較低），採用套利或順勢交易等策略。

　　AQR等一些公司運營使用這類策略的基金。投資者還可以通過先鋒價值ETF基金(Vanguard Value ETF)（費率為0.1%）等ETF，以低廉的成本將投資向價值股傾斜。

　　與此同時，投資者還應該遠離過去一年出現的熱門“泡沫股”，這是北卡羅萊納州查珀爾希爾(Chapel Hill)的投資顧問公司Morgan Creek Capital Management首席投資長馬克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko)的建議。該公司管理着68億美元資產。尤斯科指出，亞馬遜目前基於過去12個月每股收益的市盈率超過1,000倍。

　　尤斯科說：“我認為不可能有任何一家公司在我支付1,000倍市盈率的情況下仍能在未來10年裡有出色走勢。這家公司在10周甚至10個月裡可能表現不錯，但作為投資者，你首先應該為資產保值，其次才是追求增值。”（　Joe Light）（本文來自《萬維網》，放在這裡為了方便閱讀和保存）