下面这篇博文是一年之前写的，贴在《文学城》我的博客，今天放在这里，是为了大家对比阅读方便。新的分析，请阅读《苹果股价何时见五百？》。

 苹果值得你继续投资吗？（2010年3月30日）

苹果值得你继续投资吗？不少人给出了肯定的答案。

 从纯粹数量的角度看，一年时间，股价从103美元上升到236美元，似乎是上升得太多了一点。再者，2140亿美元的市值和微软2600亿美元也相差不多了。

这些数据能够说明很多问题吗？似乎不能！

苹果公司最近是好消息连连，让人应接不暇，眼花缭乱。

如果从基本面来看，22倍的市盈率，对应于下面两年29%和15%的盈利成长预期，外加公司手里大约每股40美元的现金。描绘的似乎依然是一幅很美丽的图画。华尔街预期在2010年和2011年苹果公司的盈利，分别在每股11.71和13.41美元。

标准普公司基于2010年公司自己给予的盈利预期的19倍市盈率，获得的是未来一年内的目标价位240美元，这个价位很可能这几天就能够实现。虽然目标价和实际价位相差不大，应该是没有多少“值得”投资价值的，但是，标准普还是给予了“四星”的推荐。这说明，它还是觉得苹果的未来盈利可能会比预期的要好不少。

如果在2011年苹果能够赚到每股15美元，对应于20倍的市盈率就是300美元的股价。如果在好消息不断的时候，经济打环境不错，股民在热心快肠一点，可能就会有350美元的“境界”了。

对此，作为投资者，你怎么看，怎么想呢？

在股价连冲新高的情况下，区区1.73%的卖空，是不是意味着人们不敢冒然“轻视”这个“青涩”的苹果呢？看看同类中，股价从公司高层内部大量买入时的16美元，大幅下落到3.75美元的Palm，现在可还是有39%的卖空比例的。

再者，作为股市投资者，你不仅仅要想好是不是该继续投资或者持有苹果的股票，你同时还得想好，苹果这个“愣头青”的出现，会对其它公司造成什么样的冲击？这种冲击对于你的投资对象会有什么样的影响？特别是那样在过去看上去很“安全”的公司的股票？（2010年3月30日贴于《文学城》汪翔博客）

最新的分析，请参阅《苹果股价何时见五百》。

下面是苹果公司的股价变化图和关于苹果可能好消息的报道。

 附录一：苹果市值超越微软几成定局

《综合新闻》， 2010-03-30

 北京时间3月30日上午消息，据国外媒体报道，由于iPad平板电脑即将于本周六正式开售，刺激苹果股价周一再创历史新高，市值也首次突破2100亿美元。 在周一纳斯达克市场常规交易中，苹果股价报收于232.39美元，较前一交易日上涨1.49美元，涨幅为0.65%。按照当天收盘价计算，苹果的市值达到2107.3亿美元，与其主要竞争对手微软的差距不到500亿美元。 微软股价当天报收于29.59美元，较前一交易日下跌0.07美元，跌幅为0.24%。按照当天收盘价计算，微软市值为2596.1亿美元。业内人士认为，以目前的情况来看，苹果市值超越微软只是时间问题。 

　　 上周六有报道称，首批iPad已经被预订一空，现在下单的用户只能到4月12日才能够收到这款产品。外界预计，iPad两周的预定量已经达到 24万部，这还不包括上市首日通过百思买店面销售的产品。因此，按照目前的消息来看，苹果本周末将再度创造轰动性的新闻，而这一点也将在下周一的股价中得以反映。 

　　    苹果股价的推动因素还不仅限于此。iPad最初只面向美国市场推出，而且首批发货的只是不包含3G模块的Wi-Fi版本。今年4月底，苹果还将面向其他几个市场推出iPad，并将与AT&T联手在美国市场发布3G版iPad。 这将推动苹果股价5月份继续上涨。有消息称，新款MacBook和Mac Pro将搭配最新的英特尔处理器。苹果完全可以等到iPad对股价的推动效应减弱时再推出这两款产品。 

　　    而苹果的全球开发者大会(以下简称“WWDC”)也有望成为又一个推动因素。虽然苹果尚未公布今年WWDC的日程，但按照惯例，这一会议将于6 月底举行。苹果届时肯定会推出最新版iPhone。值得注意的是，苹果今年尚未按照惯例在硬件发布之前推出新版iPhone OS的SDK(软件开发套件)。iPad将运行iPhone OS 3.2，但有消息称，苹果正在开发iPhone 4.0。不过苹果似乎不太可能选择5月份发布新版SDK，因为这样一来，在新款iPhone发布前，开发者就只有几周时间来适应这个开发套件。所以，iPhone 4.0的SDK可能会在今年晚些时候发布。 

　　    无论如何，苹果今年夏天将有一系列重要产品发布，从而对其股价起到推动作用。在此之后，这500亿美元的市值差距恐怕就完全不值一提了。 

附录二：

UPDATE: New IPhone Seen Shaking Up Players In Wireless World

 3/30/10，Dow Jones，By Roger Cheng

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) upcoming iPhone, which will eventually be compatible with Verizon Wireless' network, could help the carrier take the lead in its fierce two-horse race with AT&T Inc. (T) and have a domino effect throughout the smartphone industry.

The nation's two largest carriers are neck-and-neck each quarter in nabbing the highest quality customers. But where Verizon Wireless has done it with a myriad of products and its reputation for network quality, AT&T has heavily relied upon its exclusive agreement with Apple to sell the iPhone.

But that advantage may eventually fade. Apple is building a phone that is able to run on the technology used by Verizon Wireless and Sprint Nextel Corp. (S), according to The Wall Street Journal. The common belief is that AT&T's exclusivity will eventually end, and that the other carriers may get their hands on the vaunted smartphone. Verizon Wireless is seen as a primary beneficiary.

"There is undoubtedly enormous pent-up demand for the iPhone on Verizon's superior network," said Craig Moffett, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

Moffett estimates the shift to a non-exclusive model would allow Verizon Wireless to gain up to 3.5 million more new contract customers in the first six months, while AT&T would gain 1.4 million fewer customers in the same time frame.

Verizon Wireless, jointly owned by Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and Vodafone Group PLC (VOD), actually took the lead in customer growth in the fourth quarter, adding 1.2 million contract customers to AT&T's 910,000.

Uncertainties remain. It's unclear how Verizon Wireless would eventually price the device because AT&T pays a hefty premium to sell the iPhone at $200. While Apple is reportedly building an iPhone for release in September, there's no guarantee it will run on Verizon Wireless this year. The device could instead be sold in China, where China Telecom Corp. Ltd. (CHA) uses the same network as Verizon Wireless.

"We wouldn't count on a Verizon iPhone for the holidays," said Bill Shope, analyst at Credit Suisse.

A Verizon Wireless spokeswoman declined to comment. Nonetheless, the news sparked Verizon shares, which were recently up 3.4% to $31.47. Vodafone's American Depositary Shares gained 1% to $23.23.

AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel said the carrier and Apple have a strong relationship, but he declined to go into the specifics.

What's clear, however, is that Apple would be the biggest winner. The company would have access to the other half of the country that used an incompatible network, and the iPhone would remain the dominant device in the industry.

An Apple spokeswoman declined to comment. Apple shares, which hit an all-time high Tuesday of $237.48, were recently up 1.5% to $235.91.

AT&T has been planning privately for the loss of the exclusivity, according to a person familiar with the company's thinking. The company has known since the beginning that the relationship would eventually change, the person said.

The loss would be a blow to AT&T. The carrier heavily relies upon the iPhone. In the last quarter, it added more new iPhone customers than net subscriber additions, implying that nearly all of its growth came from the device.

AT&T shares fell 1.9% to $26.02.

AT&T wouldn't be the only loser. Just as the iPhone has brushed aside every other smartphone in AT&T's line-up, it could do the same thing at Verizon Wireless. Struggling Palm Inc. (PALM) is the most obvious victim. Even with marketing support, the company's smartphones haven't sold well, and wouldn't fare any better with Apple's device in the mix.

Palm shares were 3.3% lower at $3.77.

Handset makers Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd. (SSNHY, 005930.SE) and LG Electronics Inc. (066570.SE), which have successfully sold quick messaging phones to the carrier, could also be hurt as consumers upgrade to the iPhone. On the Korean exchange, Samsung shares slid 0.5%, and LG shares added 0.4%.

Samsung spokesman Kim Titus said the company doesn't comment on competitors.

Motorola Inc. (MOT), which sells Verizon Wireless's flagship Droid, could also struggle to create devices to match the iPhone's hype. Motorola slipped 1 cent to $7.22.

Research in Motion Ltd. (RIMM) and its Blackberry line could also be affected, but analysts believe it still has a strong position at the carrier. Its base of business clients still remains a valuable source of income for Verizon Wireless. Research in Motion shares were off 1.2% to $74.76.

A Research In Motion spokeswoman declined to comment.

Not everyone is dreading a Verizon iPhone. Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM) is a likely beneficiary because it makes the chips that go into phones compatible with that network. Qualcomm shares were up 0.7%, to $42.06.

-By Roger Cheng, Dow Jones Newswires;