蘋果消息跟蹤：如果蘋果進入電視市場？

蘋果將進入電視市場一攪渾水，看來是肯定的，不同的只是何時。問題是，如果蘋果真的開始進攻這個市場，誰將是第一輪的受害者？誰又會是第一輪的得益者？隨後，又會有什麼樣的長遠影響？當年智能手機的流行，讓期望通過廉價數碼相機開發鹹魚翻身的柯達做了一場白日夢，隨後，又僱傭了一位低能的惠普高管，搞沒有前途的噴墨打印機，而且還主打低價油墨市場，簡直就是一個弱智的傢伙，結果，才有今天柯達的可能破產。如果喬布斯回歸蘋果之後，不立馬停掉噴墨打印機業務，還像柯達那位弱智的傢伙一直做下去，今天的蘋果估計也只有破產一條路可走。有時候，我覺得，很多美國大公司的高管，真的是弱智到家了，但是，就是這些弱智的傢伙，還一次次的有機會，結果，就是一個個百年老店的敗落。關於柯達破產的解析，我後面有機會時再來戲說。

附錄：TECH VIEW: Apple Threat Looms Over TV At CES 

Jan 10, 2012 07:57:47 (ET)

   By Therese Poletti

   A DOW JONES COLUMN

In the last couple of years, recent product introductions by Apple Inc. (AAPL) have managed to dominate--or even set the tone for--much of the industry at the Consumer Electronics Show, even though Apple never exhibits at the show.

The last two Consumer Electronics Shows were overshadowed by Apple--first in 2010 by rumors of a tablet and then in 2011 by the iPad's stunning success. Indeed, January 2011 brought a slew of iPad wannabes, many of which have become road kill, as we predicted. The CES shows in 2008 and 2009 were impacted by the 2007 launch of Apple's first iPhone.

This year, as the sprawling show floor officially opens in Las Vegas, should be no different. Except that this time around, the specter of Apple and its rumored plans will torment the core of CES: the television business, ripe for the picking with a growing number of customers fed up with costly cable service and the lack of innovation in TVs.

"Apple is a very prominent non-participant at CES, within the TV industry and elsewhere in the consumer electronics industry," said Paul Gagnon, director of North American TV research at NPD DisplaySearch

The Cupertino, Calif., company has not made any announcements in TV beyond its Apple TV set-top box, which former CEO Steve Jobs once called a "hobby." But before his death in October 2011, Jobs told his biographer Walter Isaacson that he had "finally cracked" TV with the "simplest user interface," that would synch with all your devices and get rid of the complex remote controls now used for DVD players and cable.

"Apple is going to do something at some point," said Shaw Wu, a Sterne Agee analyst. "It's a question of timing."

The television market is clearly in the cross hairs. Consumers are frustrated with high costs for cable services, including paying for hundreds of channels they never watch and systems with antiquated or bizarre navigation tools. There's also a high saturation point of consumers who have already purchased a big-screen HDTV.

Google Inc. (GOOG) is providing one effort with its Android based software that integrates streaming Web content with standard TV fare.

But its first generation of Google TV, unrolled in 2010, was underwhelming. At CES, some TV makers are showing Google TV built into new sets with the latest second generation software by the Internet search giant. On Monday, for example, LG Electronics Inc. (066570.SE) unveiled super-thin LCD TVs, including one with a 55-inch screen, with Google TV built in.

"This year the TV industry had kind of muddled through," Gagnon said. "2011 was not a strong growth year for the TV industry. A lot of people own them and TV makers are trying to find something to excite consumers to get them to trade up."

In 2011, global TV unit shipments are estimated to have been flat, according to NPD DisplaySearch, with only 0.1% growth. The firm forecasts that the market will grow 2% in 2012, to 254 million units, boosted in part by new features such as 3D technology and LED backlights. But in general, the market is saturated and the average replacement cycle for a TV is much greater than a PC, typically seven to eight years, Gagnon said.

So now, consumers who don't need to upgrade their TV set for awhile, want smarter, more navigable, and less costly viewing. The instances of cord cutting--those who are getting rid of their cable service--is creeping upwards, as more consumers are watching network TV shows or movies streamed over the Internet, cancelling cable and the hundreds of channels they never watch.

"We have so many gazillion channels, it's a laborious process," said Joshua Weinberg of the Digital Life Consulting Group in San Francisco, who does not subscribe to cable anymore. Weinberg and his family watch TV shows on the Internet via Ethernet cables throughout his home and the increasingly popular box developed by Roku. "Roku becomes one of the apps on the TV. It's moving away from a dumb monitor...Apple TV could be in that direction."

A study by Deloitte earlier this week of U.S.consumers reported that 9% of respondents had canceled cable subscriptions, and another 11% said they were considering it. Viewers are also watching TV shows and even movies on other devices, including tablets and smartphones.

"Apple could totally change the game," Wu said. "The content is what's holding it up. It's tough to predict. The most important trend is cord cutting." Wu noted it is still a nascent trend and that cable companies and broadcasters still hold the cards with their content. "But if that continues, and the content guys are losing business, they may be forced to explore with Apple where they have to change their business model."

Some speculation around Apple TV includes theories that Apple may even be developing its own TV, and thus would control the whole ecosystem, much as it does with the iPhone, the iPad, the iPod, and the Mac.

Computing, too, will owe some new developments to Apple. Following Intel Corp.'s (INTC) design lead, computer makers will also be grabbing much of the spotlight with the sleeker laptops called "Ultrabooks" by the chip giant. The second wave of these thinner, lighter laptops that are being unveiled at CES were inspired by the popularity of Apple's MacBook Air, which uses flash memory for storage and lacks a hard drive and an optical drive.

So once again, CES will likely prove to be dominated by a company that isn't even there.