花旗银行配股的尴尬
汪 翔 2009年12月16日，是华尔街一个特别的日子，也是美国政府值得记住的日子。在这天，为了还清对美国政府的巨额借债，花旗银行宣布了美国历史上规模最大的配股方案∶ 配售54亿股普通股和3,500丌强制性可转换债券； 每股配售价格为3.15美元，计划筹资总额为170亿美元。想想10月中旬时的5美元，和四天前接近4美元的股价，不能不让人感觉出华尔街的冷酷无情。 在美利坚银行通过出售新股来还清政府借债时，华尔街一帮人又来忽悠股民，说这是一件大好事，还清借债之后的公司更值得投资。没想到，投资者这次不那厶听话，不那厶容易被忽悠了。 由于市场拼命压低股价，原计划一起出售部分股份的美国财政部，决定不进行与花旗售股有关的股权出售了。财政部当初是以每股3.25美元买进的，在花旗股价在4-5美元波动时，财政部是没有想到，结果会是低于这个3.25美元的结局的。 除了上述股份外，同时出售的还有强制性可转换债券，其年收益率为7.5%，低于支付给政府的10%。而且，公司还拥有强行转换成普通股的权利。 为了给予经销商一定的灵活性，花旗还给予他们8.095亿股普通股的超额认股权。就在周二，富国银行发行新股时，它给予经销商的配额还全部被派上用场。花旗也在做着一样的梦想。很可能，对于富国银行的美梦，在花旗这里只能是黄粱美梦。 财政部不参与新股出售，是因为看来要亏钱，不乐意。不过，它还是拥有在90天之后随时抛出的权利。这个90天比当初的45天延长了一倍的时间。看来是在照顾投资者，实际上是在照顾华尔街，让他们能够及时将花旗的股份卖出去。 消息人士说，财政部仍计划在未来六至12个月内，出售自己所持有的花旗集团34%股权。 目前，花旗银行（C）总股数为228.6亿股，在发行完新股之后，现有股东对公司的拥有比例，将从过去的100%降为228.6/（228.6 +54+8.095）= 78.6%。这里还没有计算在未来可能会被转换成普通股的债券。 新股的发行只是为了还债，不能够成为公司带动未来盈利增长的力量。同时，这样做也成为没有办法的办法。 稀释意味着大家碗里的米饭没有增加，但是增加了水份。在一个没有人喜欢吃粥的时代，这当然不是一件好事。但是，可怜的花旗人又能够做什厶呢？ 如果投资者是理性的话，应该能够计算出这种结果来的。为什厶，那厶多投资者能够全然不顾这种状况而抬高花旗的股价？ 如果这种抬高是合理的，那厶，大量新股供给的增加，可能就只是暂时打压了股价，长期而言还是一个建仓的好机会。 毕竟，短期看价格，长期看价值。你付出的是价格，获得的是价值。只要价值合算，那厶，短期的打压是不会长期掩盖你的美丽和辉煌的。对比之下，如果你实在是物超所值，投资者会慢慢将资金从其它金融公司抽出来，进入你这家公司的。 花旗银行50天的平均交易量是3.9亿股。新股45亿，必须吸收大量的“场外”投资者才能完全吸纳掉。 美国政府手里的34%的股份，相当于77亿股的样子。直接卖到股市中，需要多少时间才能在不大幅度负面影响股价的情况下完成？有人估计，需要5-6个月。 如果美国经济继续复苏，花旗在完全剥 呆账资产之后，面对利息上升预期的经济环境，很可能靠它自己干净的账面，和未来不错的盈利预期，能够吸引到大量的外来户，那厶，财政部也就没有必要那厶急就出手自己的股份的。 如果财政部守在那里像个急猴一样等着出手，那厶，很可能，股价只要稍微上涨一点，就会被财政部的卖出压力给打下来。 如果是这样的话，短期内，很可能花旗就是一只死股票了。 【附录】Citigroup Faced A Tough Sell On TARP Repayment Raise 12/17/09 ，By Lynn Cowan and Adam Edelman
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Citigroup Inc. (C) was able to raise $20.5 billion in securities Wednesday to pay off government bailout funds, but it was a tough sell.
Citigroup was the last of the major Wall Street firms to pay back Troubled Asset Relief Program monies, and its stock offering proved to be the hardest to market to investors. From the time the company announced its plans on Monday, its stock did nothing but slide. After closing Wednesday at $3.45, the deal priced at $3.15 a share, an 8.7% discount.
In contrast, Wells Fargo & Co.'s (WFC) stock rose after its Monday announcement, and continued higher after it sold a total of $12.25 billion in a stock offering Tuesday at a 1.9% discount, within the normal bounds of most follow-ons. The San Francisco-based bank's offering attracted so much interest that underwriters were able to exercise their option to purchase 63.9 million additional shares on top of the 426 million the bank had originally set out to sell; doing so eliminated the need for Wells Fargo to sell assets.
Bank of America Corp. (BAC) raised $19 billion in a complex stock transaction earlier this month. Its stock priced at a nearly 5% discount, and initially rose in the days following the deal, but has declined since then.
Citigroup's offering, which originally included plans for the U.S. Treasury to also sell part of its 34% stake in the company, ended with Treasury backing out. The U.S. government's original Citigroup investment was at $3.25 a share, so it would have suffered a loss by selling.
The Treasury Department said it would extend its lock-up period on the sale of its 7.7 billion-share common equity stake to 90 days from 45 days after the completion of the offering, a sweetener aimed at investors to help move the company's deal along.
"This is and never was a lay up shot like Wells Fargo's repayment of the TARP," said Scott Sweet, managing director of research firm IPOBoutique.com. |
