四玩百度∶百度真好玩 百度现在股价在460美元，算是一个完美的终结。如果你想继续玩下去，百度还有的是钱赚。 三个月前开始的四丌美元的账户，现在应该是有49000美元净资产了。实际上应该比这个多，因为，你每一次的交易费没有25美元那厶多。 上次卖出的PUT今天到期，算是白送你了，对方不可能在430美元的价位卖给你百度股票的。同时，你当时卖出的那个CALL，如果你现在什厶事也不做，人家就会从你手里按照430美元一股的价格买走。 当时你卖出今天到期的430美元价位的CALL和PUT各一个，获得的是34美元。相当于你在430+34=464美元的价位要卖掉你的那100股百度。还是一个不错的结果。 如果你想继续玩下去，那厶，你就应该在现在用2月份到期的430的CALL来置换你目前要到期的1月份的CALL，对方会再一次额外地给你16美元左右的“风险承担费”。如果你此时再卖出一个2月份到期的430美元的PUT，两者相加，合在一起，你能够获得大概30美元一股的样子。也就是说，这样一来，你再预收3000美元，条件是，人家在2月20日之前，有权利按照430一股的价码从你手里买走100股，同时也有人有权利在430美元的价码卖给你100股。 你的风险是，股价调到400美元时你持平，再向下走你就要吃点苦头了。 现在百度正在趁机捡谷歌和中国政府对垒的便宜，看来一时半刻你的风险不会是太大。再者，昨天在谷歌向中国政府开战之後，标准普还“很友好”地将百度的投资级别从最低的“一个星”提升到和谷歌平级的“三个星”。 如果你福星高照（可能性很大），在2月20日时，你三个月前的40000美元就是52000美元了，这时候，你会不会请我喝酒呢？四个月下来的投资回报就是30%！知足了，该花点小钱了。 祝大家新年吉祥。 有机会时，买本我的《价值投资∶股市投资制 之道》（崇文书局），读不读不要紧，关键是为我捧捧场，让我写起来开心一点。也好让出版社有再版的理由，库存 说已经卖完了，最近我也还得时不时为读者解惑。 再说了，上次告诉的美利坚银行似乎也有不错的结果，让在新股发行的15美元附近买进，现在的17美元估计还要持有的价值。中石油也可以玩一玩，不过，你可能得等到120美元左右时。还有INTC，很快就是建仓机会了，它的盈利那厶好，华尔街就是要打压。况且，13-15的市盈率又能够给你带来多大的风险。如果你再对冲一下就更安全了。 （汪翔，2010/1/15） 附录∶Google missed the chance to take a stand 10:06 AM ET 1/15/10 | Marketwatch Let's cut the "heroes" routine at Google Inc.
The time for the Google (GOOG) boys to take a stand for freedom in China was four years ago, when they first went into the country. Instead, with renminbi signs in their eyes, they cut a deal in order to get into the lucrative, fast-growing Chinese market.
(It's possible the Google executives were guilty of hubris more than greed. It doesn't really matter. They cut a deal).
And they had a second chance just two years ago, when a motion was proposed to the annual Google stockholders meeting that would have marked a ringing endorsement of freedom. It was put forward by New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson (later the rival candidate for the mayor's office against Mike Bloomberg.) Thompson was acting on behalf of New York's pension funds, which had a substantial stake in Google.
His motion was hardly over the top. On the subject of censorship, it would merely have required the company to take all legal steps to resist demands, and to make public where it had been required to censor.
But Thompson's motion might also have helped protect the kinds of civil rights activists who were just subject to cyber-attack in China.
"Data that can identify individual users," the motion said, "should not be hosted in Internet restricting countries, where political speech can be treated as a crime by the legal system."
It wasn't, overall, too much to expect of an American company.
But Google's board, led by Sergey Brin, Larry Page and Eric Schmidt, went after it nonetheless.
They urged other stockholders to vote it down. And to the shame of the mutual fund industry, most big fund companies, including American Funds, Vanguard Group, T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) and others sided with management.
In the end Thompson's motion won support from just 3.5% of the votes cast.
You probably didn't read much about it at the time. If I remember, this took place around that time that Don Imus made a bad joke. Oh, and American Idol was probably on the air. So we had much more important matters to discuss.
So Google has finally, belatedly, threatened to stand up to the Chinese government. The company is even threatening to pull out.
Big deal. So what?
China doesn't need Google anyway. Local rival Baidu Inc. (BIDU) has cleaned its clock. Baidu has about 75% of the Chinese-language search business. Google, in China, is sort of like Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Bing over here.
Some cynics even suggest Google's move is a face-saving way of withdrawing from China. That's a little cynical, even by my standards.
Baidu's revenues have more than doubled annually over the past four years. Its net income has more than trebled annually. Its stock has quadrupled in the last year as the company mops up the Chinese market.
It's boomed more than $60 in the past few days in response to this affair.
The biggest winner is someone you've probably never heard of: Robin Yanhong Li, the young founder and chief executive of Baidu. He and his wife have made another $450 million, or so, on their Baidu stock just in the last few days. Their fortune is now more than $3 billion.
Meanwhile, does Beijing really care what the White House, or indeed the American public, might say about this?
Unless we are prepared to pay much higher taxes, we're going to have to keep borrowing from them to pay our bills. That means they can do exactly what they like.
Once we exported our values and our products. Now we export Treasury bills. And our clout is hardly growing.
China's economy is quickly catching up to the U.S. Not long ago ours was about four times as large, in real, purchasing-power terms. Within a decade they're forecast to be about the same.
Few people realize how quickly China is catching up. This is because GDP figures are often viewed in U.S. dollar terms. But China deliberately underprices its currency drastically, as part of its policy of economic nationalism.
Welcome to the new world order. You'd better get used to it.
Brett Arends is the author of "Storm Proof Your Money." |
