美国股市，下一步怎样走？

下面是一位信仰“价值投资”理念的投资者，对于美国股市的解读。他谈了在过去一年多股市最黑暗深刻，自己对股市的感觉，和现在对于股市未来走向的估计。

我觉得，时不时读一读“过来人”的心路历程，再回顾一下自己当时的心态，对于认识自己，改进自己，还是很有价值的。

对于投资股市，哲学性的东西，不是很难理解，至少在表面上是这样。不过，真正能够将那些看似已经理解的哲理，用来指导自己的投资行动的人，确实是比较少。

逆市投资，是很多人都知道的，获得物超所值投资对象的最好办法。但是，在大家都不敢投资，或者对于大家都不敢感兴趣的投资对象，逆流而上，是很需要勇气、胆量和智慧的。

一手打造美国国际，让这个当年（1969）开始上市时，只有区区3亿美元市值的格林伯格，这位曾经让美国国际集团市值高达2700亿美元，让不少的信赖者发了大财的人（如果及时卖掉的话，或者说如果在格林伯格离开之后就很快卖掉的话），一个在金融行业投资水平很长时间丝毫不亚于巴菲特的“神人”，也曾经一再说：如果大家都朝一个方向走，可能就意味着某种问题的存在了。

在格林伯格离开美国国际集团之后才几年时间，美国国际这个金融巨无霸就像一个消了气的皮球，挣扎在崩溃的边缘。虽然美国国际的败落有着这样那样的原因，虽然这些原因中应该还有格林伯格的不少“功劳”，不过，这样一位能够长期在海水中戏水，而又能够生存不错的格林伯格，他的经营思想和投资理念，还是非常值得我们学习和思考的。很多方面，他和巴菲特的理念很相似。

下面这则新闻，就是一个顽固的“价值投资者”的经验之谈。读一读，或许对于诸位的投资改善会有好处。

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Large-cap stocks are market's best value

1:17 PM ET 11/11/09

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- One reason John Buckingham is excited about stocks right now is that most investors aren't.

In fact, when the market was at its darkest point a year ago, Buckingham was looking at a database that was as bullish as he had ever seen, with more stocks in "buy" territory than at any point before.

Buckingham is chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management in Laguna Beach, Calif., and manager of the Al Frank Fund (VALUX). A dyed-in-the-wool value investor and contrarian, Buckingham has mined undervalued stocks for more than two decades, and produced top-flight results. His unique perspective and approach makes him an ideal subject for a series of columns I am writing based on interviews with outstanding money managers.

Buckingham's take right now is cautiously optimistic. Despite the market's huge rebound since March, the decline was so steep that plenty of value plays remain, he said. Moreover, Buckingham sees many of those opportunities in the large-cap arena, representing a big change over what has happened for the last decade.

"Look at the last 10 years, and larger-cap stocks have basically gone nowhere, whereas small and midcap stocks have done very well," said Buckingham, whose fund is up more than 31% this year. "We're seeing today a lot of opportunity in the larger cap space and ... we are gravitating or moving up the market-cap spectrum. ...When you look at the relative attractiveness of small-, mid- and large-cap stocks, many of the large-cap names come with an additional margin of safety in that they are multinational, in that they are financially strong, in that they are often dividend-paying companies." Listen to Buckingham's outlook for large-cap stocks.

Mixed message

While Buckingham's goal is to earn 15% per year -- enough to double an investment every five years -- he knows that stocks historically return 9% to 11%, which he suggests is a reasonable target for most investors.

"Investors should be focused on that historical 9% to 11% return from stocks," Buckingham said, "and if you can do better than that, you are accomplishing something, especially in this environment."

Buckingham noted that current conditions are confusing for many investors, because the average stock "has done far better than the major stock market averages" this year.

Still, he believes investors are expecting even more from stocks, because they are still running scared. They can't get a reasonable return in the money markets -- Buckingham noted that some funds are paying 0.01% yields, enough to allow an investor to double their money in 10,000 years -- and some investors are settling for that yield because they are so scared of market losses.

Buckingham tries to beat back that fear by diversifying, making bold calls on a lot of stocks, and never allowing any one issue to become so much of his portfolio that a blow-up would be crippling.

'Active holder'

Moreover, Buckingham is a big believer in buy-and-hold investing, but with a difference that amounts to being an "active holder." Al Frank Asset Management sets a target price on the stocks it follows; when the shares are trading at a significant discount to that value -- typically 35% to 50% of what the analysts believe a stock is worth -- the firm is buying. When the stocks are at a more reasonable discount, Buckingham actively holds them, waiting for the value to get to the range where he'd take profits, or for the stock price to fall to the deep-discount zone.

"Often our biggest winners are stocks we bought when they were undervalued and they were buys, but we held through their growth phase and even into the momentum investor infatuation phase," Buckingham explained. "Our whole mantra is 'We buy tomorrow's growth stocks at today's bargain prices,' and we have the patience to stay with them."

The large-cap, high-quality low-risk bargains Buckingham sees on the market now include: Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), Intel Corp. (INTC), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Corning Inc. (GLW), Raytheon Co. (RTN), Monsanto Co. (MON), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Aetna Inc. (AET), and "even some of the higher-quality financial names like Travelers (TRV) or Bank of New York [Mellon Corp.] (BK) are intriguing."

Some other financial services companies, such as Wells Fargo Co. (WFC) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC), are on Buckingham's long list of holds, noting that the stocks became worth buying in the aftermath of the financial crisis a year ago, and remain undervalued, but are not at a point we're he'd either accumulate more or sell.

On the downside, Buckingham doesn't bet against stocks and short those he expects to sour, but he does see a lot of overvalued names in the consumer area. Among them: Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY), and Jo-Ann Stores Inc. (JAS). These are companies, he said, "that have generally done well ... but the share price is ahead of the fundamentals." He also included Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (HTZ), Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG), International Paper Co. (IP) and Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) in that mix, noting that "their risk-reward profile today would not justify owning them."

By sticking to brand-name companies with proven dividends and priced well below their value, Buckingham said "your upside is significant and the downside is contained. After 2008, saying the downside to anything is minimal is not a statement we want to stick our neck out with ... but patient and disciplined investors will be rewarded in this market."