美國股市，下一步怎樣走？

下面是一位信仰“價值投資”理念的投資者，對於美國股市的解讀。他談了在過去一年多股市最黑暗深刻，自己對股市的感覺，和現在對於股市未來走向的估計。

我覺得，時不時讀一讀“過來人”的心路歷程，再回顧一下自己當時的心態，對於認識自己，改進自己，還是很有價值的。

對於投資股市，哲學性的東西，不是很難理解，至少在表面上是這樣。不過，真正能夠將那些看似已經理解的哲理，用來指導自己的投資行動的人，確實是比較少。

逆市投資，是很多人都知道的，獲得物超所值投資對象的最好辦法。但是，在大家都不敢投資，或者對於大家都不敢感興趣的投資對象，逆流而上，是很需要勇氣、膽量和智慧的。

一手打造美國國際，讓這個當年（1969）開始上市時，只有區區3億美元市值的格林伯格，這位曾經讓美國國際集團市值高達2700億美元，讓不少的信賴者發了大財的人（如果及時賣掉的話，或者說如果在格林伯格離開之後就很快賣掉的話），一個在金融行業投資水平很長時間絲毫不亞於巴菲特的“神人”，也曾經一再說：如果大家都朝一個方向走，可能就意味着某種問題的存在了。

在格林伯格離開美國國際集團之後才幾年時間，美國國際這個金融巨無霸就像一個消了氣的皮球，掙扎在崩潰的邊緣。雖然美國國際的敗落有着這樣那樣的原因，雖然這些原因中應該還有格林伯格的不少“功勞”，不過，這樣一位能夠長期在海水中戲水，而又能夠生存不錯的格林伯格，他的經營思想和投資理念，還是非常值得我們學習和思考的。很多方面，他和巴菲特的理念很相似。

下面這則新聞，就是一個頑固的“價值投資者”的經驗之談。讀一讀，或許對於諸位的投資改善會有好處。

【附錄】

Large-cap stocks are market's best value

1:17 PM ET 11/11/09

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- One reason John Buckingham is excited about stocks right now is that most investors aren't.

In fact, when the market was at its darkest point a year ago, Buckingham was looking at a database that was as bullish as he had ever seen, with more stocks in "buy" territory than at any point before.

Buckingham is chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management in Laguna Beach, Calif., and manager of the Al Frank Fund (VALUX). A dyed-in-the-wool value investor and contrarian, Buckingham has mined undervalued stocks for more than two decades, and produced top-flight results. His unique perspective and approach makes him an ideal subject for a series of columns I am writing based on interviews with outstanding money managers.

Buckingham's take right now is cautiously optimistic. Despite the market's huge rebound since March, the decline was so steep that plenty of value plays remain, he said. Moreover, Buckingham sees many of those opportunities in the large-cap arena, representing a big change over what has happened for the last decade.

"Look at the last 10 years, and larger-cap stocks have basically gone nowhere, whereas small and midcap stocks have done very well," said Buckingham, whose fund is up more than 31% this year. "We're seeing today a lot of opportunity in the larger cap space and ... we are gravitating or moving up the market-cap spectrum. ...When you look at the relative attractiveness of small-, mid- and large-cap stocks, many of the large-cap names come with an additional margin of safety in that they are multinational, in that they are financially strong, in that they are often dividend-paying companies." Listen to Buckingham's outlook for large-cap stocks.

Mixed message

While Buckingham's goal is to earn 15% per year -- enough to double an investment every five years -- he knows that stocks historically return 9% to 11%, which he suggests is a reasonable target for most investors.

"Investors should be focused on that historical 9% to 11% return from stocks," Buckingham said, "and if you can do better than that, you are accomplishing something, especially in this environment."

Buckingham noted that current conditions are confusing for many investors, because the average stock "has done far better than the major stock market averages" this year.

Still, he believes investors are expecting even more from stocks, because they are still running scared. They can't get a reasonable return in the money markets -- Buckingham noted that some funds are paying 0.01% yields, enough to allow an investor to double their money in 10,000 years -- and some investors are settling for that yield because they are so scared of market losses.

Buckingham tries to beat back that fear by diversifying, making bold calls on a lot of stocks, and never allowing any one issue to become so much of his portfolio that a blow-up would be crippling.

'Active holder'

Moreover, Buckingham is a big believer in buy-and-hold investing, but with a difference that amounts to being an "active holder." Al Frank Asset Management sets a target price on the stocks it follows; when the shares are trading at a significant discount to that value -- typically 35% to 50% of what the analysts believe a stock is worth -- the firm is buying. When the stocks are at a more reasonable discount, Buckingham actively holds them, waiting for the value to get to the range where he'd take profits, or for the stock price to fall to the deep-discount zone.

"Often our biggest winners are stocks we bought when they were undervalued and they were buys, but we held through their growth phase and even into the momentum investor infatuation phase," Buckingham explained. "Our whole mantra is 'We buy tomorrow's growth stocks at today's bargain prices,' and we have the patience to stay with them."

The large-cap, high-quality low-risk bargains Buckingham sees on the market now include: Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), Wal-Mart Stores (WMT), Intel Corp. (INTC), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Corning Inc. (GLW), Raytheon Co. (RTN), Monsanto Co. (MON), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Aetna Inc. (AET), and "even some of the higher-quality financial names like Travelers (TRV) or Bank of New York [Mellon Corp.] (BK) are intriguing."

Some other financial services companies, such as Wells Fargo Co. (WFC) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC), are on Buckingham's long list of holds, noting that the stocks became worth buying in the aftermath of the financial crisis a year ago, and remain undervalued, but are not at a point we're he'd either accumulate more or sell.

On the downside, Buckingham doesn't bet against stocks and short those he expects to sour, but he does see a lot of overvalued names in the consumer area. Among them: Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD), Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. (BBBY), and Jo-Ann Stores Inc. (JAS). These are companies, he said, "that have generally done well ... but the share price is ahead of the fundamentals." He also included Hertz Global Holdings Inc. (HTZ), Penske Automotive Group Inc. (PAG), International Paper Co. (IP) and Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) in that mix, noting that "their risk-reward profile today would not justify owning them."

By sticking to brand-name companies with proven dividends and priced well below their value, Buckingham said "your upside is significant and the downside is contained. After 2008, saying the downside to anything is minimal is not a statement we want to stick our neck out with ... but patient and disciplined investors will be rewarded in this market."