下一个股市崩盘在即吗？

最近一段时间，美国股市上上下下，像一个难以驾驶的野牛。金融界的专业人士们，则各讲各的道，有的认为股值低估，是逢低买入的好时机，有的则持相反的态度，大唱哀歌。下面附录里面的这篇英文文章有点代表性，我大致“大胆妄为”地评论一下，希望对大家有所启发。

作者给出了股市将会崩盘的十个理由。

其一，按照市盈率来看，和历史数据相比，目前的估值太高。现在，按照罗伯特·席勒的计算，标准普500的市盈率大概在20 左右，远高于16倍的历史平均水平。这种对16倍历史“平均”水平的期待，我觉得有点一厢情愿：他获得的那个“平均值”，包含了“很久之前”估值特别低的“特殊时代”。那个容易在股市赚钱的时代，估计是很难再看到了。也正是那个时代的存在，才造就了巴菲特的传奇。现在的投资环境已经远没有那种机会了。

如果具体到个股，倒是有点意思：WMT（$51）的市盈率为12.8，红利率为2.35%，盈利成长预期为9-10%。可口可乐（KO，$55.7）的市盈率为17.4，低于最近十多年的平均值，红利率为3.16%，盈利成长预期为9-10%；普洁（PG）的情形类似。科技股方面，最有代表性的就是微软和英特尔了。英特尔（INTC，$18.7）的市盈率为11.3，市场预期它在今后几年的盈利为一直持平。不过，它的现金流不错，如果它能够保持盈利能力不下降，也应该是个不错的“现金牛”。

由此可见，席勒的理由似乎也不是很值得大家重视。再者，这位席勒是很喜欢吓唬人的啰。

其二，联储有点心慌了。一方面警告经济有继续恶化的可能，另一方面，又在出手防止通货紧缩的出现。在大量注入流动性的同时，通货紧缩出现，这对于股市可不是什么好事情，至少在短期内是这样。问题是，你的投资是基于短期还是长期。短期的影响到底会有多大？

其三，太多的乐观主义者。这是一件有意思的事情：联储警告经济走下坡，股市玩家乐观派站主流。按照彼得·林奇的“鸡尾酒理论”，大多数人乐观的时候，很可能就是股市需要调整的时刻，至少在短期内看是这样。这倒是有点道理，不过，什么叫做“短期”？你很在乎吗？按照市场效率理论，市场再长期一般不会打错。这次的乐观，到底意味着什么呢？

其四，数据表明，经济似乎已经处于通货紧缩阶段。人们现在在谈论，美国经济会不会步入当年日本的后尘，也来个“十年无所事事”？对比中国的通货膨胀压力，美国人需要担心通货紧缩吗？如果美国主要依靠中国生产物资，这种可能性恐怕比较小。至少，我们很多人能够感觉到，许多食品的价格在最近几年已经上升了不少。

其五，太多的人依然欠账太多。和十年前相比，美国人的债务已经翻番了。这倒是一个值得人们认真对待的大问题。按照目前的架势继续走下去，美国和中国的“芥子”可能只好通过武力来解决了。到了那种状态，战争就成为我们担心的大事，而不是股市。一旦战争开打，只要不是在美国国土，美国人肯定会发财的。中国的强势，我们这代人估计很难看到。拭目以待吧。

其六，就业市场形势依然不容乐观。按照数据是9.7%的失业率，但是，如果算上那些更为严重的隐性失业，失业率估计可能就是20%好几了。目前，20岁以上的人口，只有61%的人有工作，而且，很多人还只是拥有临时工。这些临时工们所挣的钱，是远不够养家糊口的，他们最多也只能够满足于最基本的消费。想工作又寻找无门，很有点中国大学毕业生的味道。不过，股市和就业市场之间有一个时差：股市总是前瞻性比较强，等到就业市场已经明显转好时，股市早已经调整到位了。就业市场给你的是“感性”的认识，股市需要通过基于理性的认识来付诸行动。

其七，住房市场依然不景气。在通货紧缩的年代，债务数量不变，而购买力和赚钱能力却在变小，相当于是无形中加重的债务负担。再者，地产是美国人最大的资产之一，在主要资产继续贬值的情况下，人们消费的欲望也会受到影响。地产市场一方面受到就业市场的影响，同时，银行捂住口袋不贷款，抑制了需求，也是一个问题。大量注入的流动性，在美国并没有变成真正的购买力。这和中国的国情还很不同。在需要资金流动的时候，大家因为保守和小心“不流动”，在大家都乐观的时候，很可能就是洪水泛滥了。

其八，九、十月是美国股市多灾多难的多发季节。很多人由于历史的经验，对于这个季节有着恐惧心理。今年会不会继续“犯病”，也是人们担心的。恐慌是市场动荡的根源。

其九，十一月份又是一个选举季节，很多人估计，这一次，民主党会失掉很多地盘。共和党的“回乡团”一来，对于富人的照顾和对于穷人的“理性”，会不会造成“雪上加霜”的效果？也是人们担心的问题。不过，一般来说，共和党看着效率，长期看也不是坏事。民主党喜欢“乐善好施”，短期效果可能好一点，长期而言，或许只会弊大于利。

其十，其它数据表明，经济形势不是很理想。特别是，中国的宏观调控，让世界人民的希望暂时落了空。但是，这或许也是一件好事。蒸蒸日上的中国经济，对于世界经济的繁荣还是很重要的。至少在现在，人们不得不正视这一现实。

作为晴雨表的CSCO，最近给出了比较悲观一点的为了盈利预期。21.88美元的股价，16.74的市盈率，外加两位数的预期盈利成长，没有红利，就是CSCO当前的现状。但是，保守的Csco，它的悲观，到底能够说明多少问题？更有趣的是苹果公司，大量的现金，都很保守地放在美国的国库券上了。美国大量的公司手里有着大量的现金。美国的民众“贫穷”，但是，美国的公司依然富有。这只后备军最后总会杀出来，拯救美国的。是不是？

附录：Is another market crash coming?

From jobs to housing to the "September effect," several economic and market indicators are warning investors to be cautious.

By Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

I don't make predictions. That's a sucker's game. But way too many people are way too complacent this summer.

Here are 10 reasons to watch out:

1. The market is already expensive. Stocks are about 20 times cyclically adjusted earnings, according to data compiled by Yale University economics professor Robert Shiller. That's well above average, which, historically, has been about 16. This ratio has been a powerful predictor of long-term returns. Valuation is by far the most important issue for investors. If you're getting paid well to take risks, they may make sense. But what if you're not?

2. The Fed is getting nervous. The central bank recently warned that the economy had weakened, and it unveiled its latest weapon in the war against deflation: using the proceeds from the sale of mortgages to buy Treasury bonds. The move should drive down long-term interest rates. That's great news for mortgage borrowers, but it's hardly something one wants to hear when the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is already north of 10,000.

3. Too many people are too bullish. Active money managers are expecting the market to go higher, according to the latest survey by the National Association of Active Investment Managers. So are financial advisers, reports the weekly survey by Investors Intelligence. And that's reason to be cautious. The time to buy is when everyone else is gloomy. The reverse may also be true.

4. Deflation is already here. Consumer prices have fallen for three months in a row. And, most ominously, the drop is affecting wages. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that workers earned 0.7% less in real terms per hour last quarter than they did a year ago. No wonder the Fed is worried. In deflation, wages, company revenues, and the value of your home and your investments may shrink in dollar terms. But your debts stay the same size. That makes deflation a vicious trap, especially if your among the people who owe way too much money.

5. Many people still owe way too much money. And not just households -- corporations, states, local governments and, of course, Uncle Sam owe, too. It's the debt, stupid. According to the Federal Reserve, total U.S. debt -- even excluding the financial sector -- is basically twice what it was 10 years ago: $35 trillion compared with $18 trillion. Households have barely made a dent in their debt burden; it has fallen a mere 3% from last year's all-time peak, leaving it at twice the level of a decade ago.

6. The jobs picture is much worse than they're telling you. Forget the "official" unemployment rate of 9.5%. Alternative measures? Try this: Just 61% of the population age 20 or over has any kind of job right now. That's the lowest since the early 1980s, when more women stayed at home by choice. Among men today, it's 66.9%. Back in the '50s, incidentally, that figure was around 85%, although allowances should be made for the higher number of elderly people alive today. And many of those still working can find only part-time work, so just 59% of men age 20 or over currently have a full-time job. This is bullish?

7. Housing remains a disaster. Foreclosures rose again last month. Banks took an additional 93,000 homes in July, says foreclosure specialist RealtyTrac. That's a rise of 9% from June and just shy of May's record. We're heading for 1 million foreclosures this year, RealtyTrac says. And naturally the ripple effect hurts all those homeowners not in foreclosure by driving down prices. See deflation (No. 4) above.

8. Labor Day is approaching. Ouch. It always seems to be in September-October when the wheels come off Wall Street. Think 2008. Think 1987. Think 1929. Statistically, there actually is a "September effect." The market, on average, has done worse in that month than any other. No one really knows why. Some have even blamed the psychological effect of shortening days. But it becomes self-reinforcing: People fear it, so they sell.

9. We're looking at gridlock in Washington. Election season has begun. And the Democrats are expected to lose seats in both houses in November. (Betting at InTrade, a bookmaker in Dublin, Ireland, recently was giving the GOP a 62% chance of taking control of the House.) As our political dialogue seems to have collapsed beyond all possible hope of repair, let's not hope for any "bipartisan" agreements on anything of substance. Do you think this is a good thing? As Davis Rosenberg at investment firm Gluskin Sheff recently pointed out, gridlock is only a good thing for investors "when nothing needs fixing." Today, he notes, we need strong leadership. Not gonna happen.

10. All sorts of other indicators are flashing amber. The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index, while positive, weakened again in July. So did ISM's new-orders indicator. The trade deficit has widened, and second-quarter GDP growth was much lower than first thought. ECRI's Weekly Leading Index has been flashing warning lights for weeks (though the most recent signals have looked somewhat better). Europe's industrial production in June turned out considerably worse than expected. Even China's steamroller economy is slowing down. Tech bellwether Cisco Systems (CSCO, news, msgs) has signaled caution ahead. Individually, each of these might mean little. Collectively, they make me wonder. In this environment, I might be happy to buy shares if they were cheap. But not so much if they're expensive. See No. 1 above.