股市解讀：方法、要點和現狀

該怎麼樣解讀股市提供的信息？應該採用什麼方法？各種方法之間有什麼差異？各種方法的缺陷在哪裡？

這裡的文章，將給你部分啟發。

我附上簡短的說明，看看能不能給你必須的幫助。這裡解讀的角度，還主要是就“短期”而言。

對於股市整體的長期解讀，說到底是對一個市場所代表的公司整體長期經營業績的解讀。而對於一家公司的長期解讀，則是對這家公司長期競爭力和經營賺錢能力的解讀。

注意到，談的是長期持久的競爭力，是在擁有優勢競爭力前提下的盈利能力和盈利成長能力。短期的成功者，長期或許會成為敗軍之將。後面，我再給你貼出一篇文章，告訴你：美國股市敗在創始人手裡的十家曾經牛哄哄過的公司名單和它們敗落的主要原因。

What the market is telling us now 

By Michael Sincere 
Feb 6, 2013 13:52:36 (ET)

MIAMI, Fla. (MarketWatch) -- Do we dare call this a bull market? The indicators were on target in January, and showed that the market had enough strength to go higher. Nevertheless, we'll turn to the indicators to warn of potential dangers.

• 趨勢解讀：有繼續向上的趨勢。暗示着牛市行情還將繼續。雖然有很多人在唱衰股市，期待着一次大的回調出現，但是，期待的還沒有變成現實。

On the technical side, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is well above its moving averages, which indicate the bullish trend will continue. Obviously, a so-called Black Swan event can occur at any time, but after four years, we're still waiting. The higher the market goes, the louder the crash warnings will get. But the market keeps advancing. MACD is also signaling that the upward trend will continue.

• 相對強度指數表面，市場已經被“超買”，有回吐的可能性。畢竟，按照“隨機慢行”理論，最終，股市還是會回歸“理性”水準。所以，短期的過度“興奮”，最終是會被市場自動調整回來的。但是，“短期”畢竟是個很“技巧”的概念，其長度很難預測准。

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index is signaling the market is overbought, which is a concern. However, the market can remain overbought for weeks or months before reversing.

• 基於期權制定的“牛熊指數”顯示，市場玩家看漲的比例大於看跌的比例。也就是說，股市的投資者，更多的人樂意將寶壓在股市將繼續上漲這邊。所以，需求的重心，在短期內還是買入而不是賣出。

Sentiment indicators, which tell you if investors are overly bullish or bearish, show that investors are becoming more enthusiastic about the market. The recent 0.67 put/call ratio hints that options investors are still bullish (and buying more call options). It wouldn't be surprising to see the market have a short-term pullback, bringing investors back to reality.

• CANSLIM是《Investors Daily》的創始人創建的一個綜合評價股市中最有升值潛力股的一種指標。這套指標，在股市以牛市為特色的時候，對於喜愛成長股的投資者，是個不錯的參考指標。在熊市來臨大跌的環境下，你跟着它來投資，還是會跌的鼻青臉腫。不過，它至少給了你一個自己說服自己的“科學”方法和指標。人嗎，都是喜歡和需要藉口的。基於這個指標，市場總體看還是牛哄哄的可能性比較大。它還告訴我們，那個賣木材的商家，面對“已經”開始復甦的房屋市場，是個不錯的投資對象。

Recently I had a talk with Amy Smith, author of , and an expert on the CANSLIM investment philosophy. I wanted to confirm that CANSLIM was showing what I see: a bullish market with possible warning signs. CANSLIM, created by William O'Neil, looks at current earnings, annual earnings, new products and services, share supply and demand, leaders and laggards, institutional sponsorship, and market indexes to identify strong and weak stocks.

Smith says that the overall market is continuing to act well, noting that "the Nasdaq is holding in a tight range."

Because we're in earnings season, Smith wants to know if institutions are starting to sell stocks, which would be a warning sign. If there is heavy selling, that would indicate mutual fund companies and other large players have lost faith in the market. Fortunately, Smith doesn't see that yet.

Most important to CANSLIM, the leading stocks are still acting well, and so far there haven't been major problems. Even though a few stocks (such as Apple Inc. ) have had disappointing earnings, Smith says that happens every earnings season. Overall, according to CANSLIM, the market is acting strong but Smith is looking for signs of distribution (selling). The leading stocks are holding up, but she is watching them closely.

When I asked Smith for a leading stock that fits the CANSLIM criteria, she mentioned Lumber Liquidators Holdings Inc. , a retailer that provides hardwood flooring and lamination at discounted prices.

The company has profited along with the housing market recovery, and has a chart that any long-term investor (or covered call writer) might appreciate. Lumber Liquidators reports earnings on February 20.

Here's why Smith likes Lumber Liquidators: "A lot of homebuilders are reporting earnings, which will tell us if the housing boom is continuing, or if there will be a slowdown from that group. Lumber Liquidators is a stock that has done well, and since October has been consolidating (a period of indecision). When they report earnings, we want to see if they can come out of this price consolidation on heavy volume."

• 機構投資者整體而言，還是以買入為主，也就是說，總數而言，買的強度還是大於賣出的強度。所以，股市投資的主力軍，在市場上還是以買入為主，所以，至少在短期內，你不用擔心，因為主力的賣出壓力，而拉跌大盤指數。但是，這些畢竟只是短期的“跡象”。

If the stock breaks out on strong volume, it would indicate that institutions are aggressively buying.

Because it is earnings season, the market may be volatile in the short term. Nevertheless, the indicators are generally positive, and unless there are unexpected surprises, February could be a good month.

Rather than get swayed by fear, rely on fundamental or technical analysis, or a method such as CANSLIM. If you do see danger signs, then sell or reduce your position. But staying out of the market permanently because the markets might crash is not an investment strategy.