發表評論-汪翔-萬維博客-萬維讀者網（電腦版）

第二，你的理財能力——也就是說，資金在你自己手裡有多大的升值能力，為了這樣的升值，你需要承擔的風險是不是足夠低？如果比你預期要壞很多的情形（小概率事件）發生，你是不是能夠坦然應對？而你將錢放到房子上，就相當於是購買了和你的房貸利息一樣高的定期CD，是沒有多少投資風險的。你不可以基於已經過去的幾年股市的投資回報，來預測你未來的可能實現的投資回報。在這方面，我有好幾個非常沉痛的朋友故事。故事之一是，一位原本已經有高達百萬美元資金在手的美國白人朋友，正在建一棟價值相當的大房子。百萬美元的房子，在我所生活的地方可是可以造的美輪美奐。在造的過程中，他的老婆一再升級材料等級，最終搞的預算有大約20%的缺口。為了彌補這個缺口，過上自己喜愛同時又沒有債務的日子，這位一直做實業做的不錯，很少投資股市的企業家，開始將資金投資到日日見長的股市。最初，他開心，因為確實是天天睡着也賺錢。但是，很快，股市逆轉，他的經紀告訴他，那只是紙上損失，很快就會回來並且讓他大賺。結果，一年不到的煎熬，他的百萬被腰斬。再過了幾年，經濟繼續的不景氣，實業也做的艱難。他最終不得不低價賣掉自己的新居，幾十年來第一次開始租房過日子，一切的一切，就是為了繼續活下去，不申請破產。

第三，才是你需要考慮的到底你會在那棟房子裡面住幾年。如果你只會住五年，選擇五年的房貸可能最佳，因為利息最低！次佳的就是儘可能短的房貸，因為利息會儘可能的低。

第四，就是房子規格的選擇，是不是應該選擇一次性的到位？或者說，最好選擇一個至少十年不會搬家的住房。在目前利息極低的環境下，你做出這樣的選擇，從純經濟性的考量看，應該是最好的。經濟最終會回升，利息不可能永遠在低位徘徊。雖然像日本幾十年低位掙扎的現實也有，但是，畢竟機會比較小。再者，如果真的是那樣的話，經濟持續的不景氣，你選擇保守的理財方式，也不是壞事。

繼續的分析，就變的更為細緻和個人化了。讀讀下面的文章，會對你有些啟發。

Five Questions to Decide Between a 15- and 30-Year Mortgage

November 7, 2013 by 247alex

Source: Thinkstock

It has been a slow and painful process, but the housing market is now in recovery and foreclosures have been dropping. Since the housing bust, regulators have focused on preventing borrowers from entering into potentially toxic loans. To help accomplish this, theU.S.government established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in 2010.

As part of this effort, the CFPB has proposed new disclosure forms to help borrowers understand the real risks and costs associated with their mortgage. But many potential borrowers are still unsure about the type of mortgage that is right for them. Many borrowers may be attracted to 15-year mortgages, which have a shorter term and lower interest rates than 30-year mortgages. But such a mortgage may not be right for their needs.

Despite the rise in popularity of the 15-year mortgage, it is not necessarily for everyone. For borrowers, it is important to get as much information about the different common mortgages institutions offer — and to understand the different terms. While the amount being borrowed, or principal of the loan, is often clear, the cost of the loan, or interest rate, is often less so.

In an interview with24/7 Wall St., Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, said borrowing to buy a home is a more complicated decision than refinancing. It is “much more of a calculation about what you can afford, how secure you are about your job, what’s the likelihood you’re going to want to move in less than five years.”

Borrowers must understand how payments, which consist of principal repayment and interest, will be structured under the different types of mortgages. They need to consider how much they will be paying for the loan, not just now, but in the future as well. And they should also consider their budget, age and other factors before deciding on a mortgage.

These are the questions to ask when deciding between and 15 and 30-year mortgage.

1. Can you afford to pay off the mortgage in 15 years?

Although a 15-year mortgage offers a lower rate relative to a 30-year mortgage, thereby allowing borrowers to pay interest for only half as long, a 15-year mortgage comes with a higher total monthly payment. This is because the principal must be paid off faster, making each principal payment larger.

Because borrowers pay down the principal balance faster, in the longer run they save on interest payments. Inside Mortgage Finance publisher Guy Cecala noted, “if you can afford the higher payments associated with the shorter-term 15-year mortgage, there is no reason not to take one.”

However, because the monthly payments are higher, it can strain borrowers’ ability to set aside money for retirement or their kids’ college tuition. These borrowers may be better-off with a 30-year mortgage. Similarly, if the higher payments of a 15-year mortgage mean borrowers have less money to invest elsewhere and diversify their portfolios, they may be better off with a 30-year mortgage.

2. Are you buying your first home?

First-time home buyers often benefit from selecting a 30-year mortgage because the monthly payments are lower. A longer-term mortgage can make a more expensive home more affordable for a new buyer. According to Cecala, most first-time home buyers “are trying to get in as much house as they can.”

Of course, 15-year and 30-year mortgages are not the only options available to consumers. Borrowers can take an adjustable-rate mortgage, which offers a low initial rate that stays unchanged for some period, such as five years. When the period expires, borrowers could pay more if interest rates rise. But for buyers who are not looking to own their home for too long and who are confident that they will be able to resell the home, an adjustable rate mortgage may be a sensible option.

3. Are you looking to refinance?

If you already have a mortgage and would like to refinance, now may be a good time. Cecala noted that if your current payments on a 30-year mortgage are high enough, you might be able to refinance into a 15-year mortgage and make similar monthly payments while shortening your mortgage term.

An additional factor that may make refinancing more attractive is the current difference, or spread, between interest rates on 15-year and 30-year mortgages. According to Cecala, “historically, the difference between the 30-year fixed rate and the 15-year fixed rate has been about 25 basis points,” or about 0.25%. Currently, the spread between the two rates is especially large, at close to 1% in some cases.

4. Are you planning on retiring soon?

How close a borrower is to retiring plays a major role in whether to take out a 15-year mortgage. Typically, borrowers who take 15-year mortgages are at least 40 years old, according to Cecala. These borrowers are often willing to pay off the balance on their mortgages faster in order to retire with little or no outstanding debt on their homes. However, many older homeowners also must weigh prepayment — making early payments on their mortgage — against the need to save for retirement. According to the CFPB, 30% of homeowners aged 70 and older have outstanding mortgages.

5. Do you have a strict savings plan?

Choosing a 15-year mortgage over a 30-year mortgage also may be a worthwhile choice if you are not a disciplined saver. But many people may lack the discipline needed to save long-term, Cecala noted, especially in amounts that would offset what they would save by switching to a 15-year mortgage. He also added that “a lot of times people need that extra money for something else,” and so they choose to keep their money in a 30-year mortgage with lower individual monthly payments.

Some truly disciplined savers may actually benefit from carrying their mortgages into retirement. According to a May story published by Time magazine: “if you expect to earn more after tax on your investments than you pay after tax on your mortgage, keep the mortgage.” What you want to avoid in retirement, however, is a situation where you are juggling a mortgage on top of your basic costs of living, taxes and health care payments.