十五年和三十年房贷比哪个更好？

多少年的房贷是最佳的？这样的问题经常被人问及，答案也总是因人而异。下面的文章给了你一个侧面的分析，体现了普通美国人对金融和理财的观念。

华裔和一般的美国人在理财观念上有不少的差异，各有优势各有劣势，很难说谁的办法更好。所以。具体的理性和专业性的分析，也就显得非常的重要。

就房贷时间长短的选择而言，有好几个因素必须考虑：

第一，多少房贷你可以承担？如果三十年是唯一你可以承担的房贷，那么，你已经没有选择，也不用选择了——就是它！如果你可以承担五年、十年、十五年任何长度的房贷，也就是说，你的财力足够强大，那么，你就得考虑下一个问题了。

第二，你的理财能力——也就是说，资金在你自己手里有多大的升值能力，为了这样的升值，你需要承担的风险是不是足够低？如果比你预期要坏很多的情形（小概率事件）发生，你是不是能够坦然应对？而你将钱放到房子上，就相当于是购买了和你的房贷利息一样高的定期CD，是没有多少投资风险的。你不可以基于已经过去的几年股市的投资回报，来预测你未来的可能实现的投资回报。在这方面，我有好几个非常沉痛的朋友故事。故事之一是，一位原本已经有高达百万美元资金在手的美国白人朋友，正在建一栋价值相当的大房子。百万美元的房子，在我所生活的地方可是可以造的美轮美奂。在造的过程中，他的老婆一再升级材料等级，最终搞的预算有大约20%的缺口。为了弥补这个缺口，过上自己喜爱同时又没有债务的日子，这位一直做实业做的不错，很少投资股市的企业家，开始将资金投资到日日见长的股市。最初，他开心，因为确实是天天睡着也赚钱。但是，很快，股市逆转，他的经纪告诉他，那只是纸上损失，很快就会回来并且让他大赚。结果，一年不到的煎熬，他的百万被腰斩。再过了几年，经济继续的不景气，实业也做的艰难。他最终不得不低价卖掉自己的新居，几十年来第一次开始租房过日子，一切的一切，就是为了继续活下去，不申请破产。

第三，才是你需要考虑的到底你会在那栋房子里面住几年。如果你只会住五年，选择五年的房贷可能最佳，因为利息最低！次佳的就是尽可能短的房贷，因为利息会尽可能的低。

第四，就是房子规格的选择，是不是应该选择一次性的到位？或者说，最好选择一个至少十年不会搬家的住房。在目前利息极低的环境下，你做出这样的选择，从纯经济性的考量看，应该是最好的。经济最终会回升，利息不可能永远在低位徘徊。虽然像日本几十年低位挣扎的现实也有，但是，毕竟机会比较小。再者，如果真的是那样的话，经济持续的不景气，你选择保守的理财方式，也不是坏事。

继续的分析，就变的更为细致和个人化了。读读下面的文章，会对你有些启发。

Five Questions to Decide Between a 15- and 30-Year Mortgage

November 7, 2013 by 247alex

Source: Thinkstock

It has been a slow and painful process, but the housing market is now in recovery and foreclosures have been dropping. Since the housing bust, regulators have focused on preventing borrowers from entering into potentially toxic loans. To help accomplish this, theU.S.government established the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in 2010.

As part of this effort, the CFPB has proposed new disclosure forms to help borrowers understand the real risks and costs associated with their mortgage. But many potential borrowers are still unsure about the type of mortgage that is right for them. Many borrowers may be attracted to 15-year mortgages, which have a shorter term and lower interest rates than 30-year mortgages. But such a mortgage may not be right for their needs.

Despite the rise in popularity of the 15-year mortgage, it is not necessarily for everyone. For borrowers, it is important to get as much information about the different common mortgages institutions offer — and to understand the different terms. While the amount being borrowed, or principal of the loan, is often clear, the cost of the loan, or interest rate, is often less so.

In an interview with24/7 Wall St., Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance, said borrowing to buy a home is a more complicated decision than refinancing. It is “much more of a calculation about what you can afford, how secure you are about your job, what’s the likelihood you’re going to want to move in less than five years.”

Borrowers must understand how payments, which consist of principal repayment and interest, will be structured under the different types of mortgages. They need to consider how much they will be paying for the loan, not just now, but in the future as well. And they should also consider their budget, age and other factors before deciding on a mortgage.

These are the questions to ask when deciding between and 15 and 30-year mortgage.

1. Can you afford to pay off the mortgage in 15 years?

Although a 15-year mortgage offers a lower rate relative to a 30-year mortgage, thereby allowing borrowers to pay interest for only half as long, a 15-year mortgage comes with a higher total monthly payment. This is because the principal must be paid off faster, making each principal payment larger.

Because borrowers pay down the principal balance faster, in the longer run they save on interest payments. Inside Mortgage Finance publisher Guy Cecala noted, “if you can afford the higher payments associated with the shorter-term 15-year mortgage, there is no reason not to take one.”

However, because the monthly payments are higher, it can strain borrowers’ ability to set aside money for retirement or their kids’ college tuition. These borrowers may be better-off with a 30-year mortgage. Similarly, if the higher payments of a 15-year mortgage mean borrowers have less money to invest elsewhere and diversify their portfolios, they may be better off with a 30-year mortgage.

2. Are you buying your first home?

First-time home buyers often benefit from selecting a 30-year mortgage because the monthly payments are lower. A longer-term mortgage can make a more expensive home more affordable for a new buyer. According to Cecala, most first-time home buyers “are trying to get in as much house as they can.”

Of course, 15-year and 30-year mortgages are not the only options available to consumers. Borrowers can take an adjustable-rate mortgage, which offers a low initial rate that stays unchanged for some period, such as five years. When the period expires, borrowers could pay more if interest rates rise. But for buyers who are not looking to own their home for too long and who are confident that they will be able to resell the home, an adjustable rate mortgage may be a sensible option.

3. Are you looking to refinance?

If you already have a mortgage and would like to refinance, now may be a good time. Cecala noted that if your current payments on a 30-year mortgage are high enough, you might be able to refinance into a 15-year mortgage and make similar monthly payments while shortening your mortgage term.

An additional factor that may make refinancing more attractive is the current difference, or spread, between interest rates on 15-year and 30-year mortgages. According to Cecala, “historically, the difference between the 30-year fixed rate and the 15-year fixed rate has been about 25 basis points,” or about 0.25%. Currently, the spread between the two rates is especially large, at close to 1% in some cases.

4. Are you planning on retiring soon?

How close a borrower is to retiring plays a major role in whether to take out a 15-year mortgage. Typically, borrowers who take 15-year mortgages are at least 40 years old, according to Cecala. These borrowers are often willing to pay off the balance on their mortgages faster in order to retire with little or no outstanding debt on their homes. However, many older homeowners also must weigh prepayment — making early payments on their mortgage — against the need to save for retirement. According to the CFPB, 30% of homeowners aged 70 and older have outstanding mortgages.

5. Do you have a strict savings plan?

Choosing a 15-year mortgage over a 30-year mortgage also may be a worthwhile choice if you are not a disciplined saver. But many people may lack the discipline needed to save long-term, Cecala noted, especially in amounts that would offset what they would save by switching to a 15-year mortgage. He also added that “a lot of times people need that extra money for something else,” and so they choose to keep their money in a 30-year mortgage with lower individual monthly payments.

Some truly disciplined savers may actually benefit from carrying their mortgages into retirement. According to a May story published by Time magazine: “if you expect to earn more after tax on your investments than you pay after tax on your mortgage, keep the mortgage.” What you want to avoid in retirement, however, is a situation where you are juggling a mortgage on top of your basic costs of living, taxes and health care payments.