蘋果給你上的一堂價值投資課

股票投資到底在投資什麼？決定股票價值的到底是什麼因素？怎麼樣確定股票的合理價格，怎麼樣知道自己的投資到底有多大的安全邊際，一直是困擾許多投資者的大問題。

很多不甘心於自己的閒散資金被時間吃的精光，又不知道該怎麼樣投資才能夠既安全又會獲得合理的回報的投資者，估計能夠從蘋果的故事上學到不少的投資內容。

今天的蘋果公司，應該給你上了一堂非常好的價值投資課了。特別是對比一下，在喬布斯剛剛去世時，很多人發表的“高論”——儘可能迴避蘋果的股票，因為蘋果的故事是有喬布斯一人寫定的——之後。我覺得，抽時間學習點美國的生意經，對於在美國的生活，還是價值巨大的。

如果你再回過頭來好好的，仔細的分析和思索一下過去幾年發生在蘋果公司和蘋果股票上的故事，再基於這種分析來預測蘋果股價在未來幾年的走向，我估計，你會在投資的領域更上一層樓。

蘋果給出的是一個非常獨特的故事。

它是一家在過去幾年成長速度非常快的一家公司。但是，同時，它的股票所對應的市盈率卻一直很低，至少是相對於它的盈利成長是這樣。

股市之所以給予它比較低的市盈率，說到底，就是人們在擔心，它的這種盈利成長的高速度只會是“曇花一現”。在蘋果以實際行動來一再的證明，自己有能力繼續保持比較高的盈利增長的前提下，股市就不得不被動的去修正自己對公司股價的市盈率，來跟上公司盈利成長的步伐。

今天你看到的16.55倍的市盈率（對應股價為580美元），和幾個月之前你看到的12倍的市盈率，成長了38%，而這又基本上是短期內股價上升的比例。

在隨後的幾個季度，如果蘋果正如大家所估計的那樣，繼續保持40%到50%的盈利增長的話，那麼，在十二個月之後，對應於50%的盈利增長，對應的動態市盈率就是11倍。這又回到了幾個月之前人們的估值基礎上來了。

現在最大的問題實際上就是，蘋果能夠按照這樣的成長速度“折騰”多久？如果在一年之後的第二個年頭，蘋果的盈利成長速度下降到15%，那麼，那時候這家公司的市盈率就應該是15倍以下了。在這裡，我們顧及了蘋果手裡有大約相當於股價30%的現金。

這樣算下來，接下來的一年50%的盈利增長，跟着的是15%的盈利增長，股價就不太會有很大的上升空間了。不過，在華爾街的很多分析師眼裡，一下子這麼快的下降到15%的盈利增長，好像可能性也不是很大。

過去幾年，華爾街基本上就是按照這種邏輯在購買和賣出蘋果股票的。之所以有這幾年的瘋漲，就是因為，蘋果一再的讓華爾街人“失算”——做的比人們估計的要好。至於為什麼會出現這樣的失算，看來，你還是得好好琢磨一下這個行業的歷史，特別是競爭史。於是乎，你可能值得花點小錢來購買我的那本《喬布斯的商戰》，並且好好的批判性地閱讀一下了。

蘋果過去五年的股價變化圖

接下來，華爾街還會繼續失算嗎？

沒有人能夠回答這個問題。但是，有一點是肯定的：越往後走，蘋果盈利成長速度下降的可能性越大！在蘋果盈利成長速度大幅下降之後，蘋果又能夠做什麼呢？特別是在成為最大市值的公司之後？

一般來說，它能夠做的，就是靠保持業績，爭取保證現金流的穩定，和在此基礎上有吸引力的紅利。也就是說，回到微軟目前正在演繹的故事上來。那樣的話，市盈率就得回到11倍的位置了。除非整個市場開始狂熱。

不過，只要蘋果下一年還有40%以上的盈利成長，只要蘋果的領導者不瞎折騰，在擁有巨大的壟斷優勢，同時又手握大量的現金，並且還處於成長的勢頭上的時候，即使在現在這樣的價位，你購買蘋果的股票，握有兩年，你虧錢的可能性也還是很小。現在正是最佳的修正期，把握好機會。至於最終你能賺多少，就得看蘋果自己的能耐了。如果你想保守一點，你可以在人們現在還狂熱的時候，購買股票，同時賣出期權（時間價值比較高）來保護自己。那樣的話，你就是萬無一失了。不過，這倒是一個比較技術性的活計。

更多的分析，請閱讀我發表在《文學城》和《萬維網》個人博客上的相關文章。我關於蘋果股票的分析已經做了好久了。下面這篇英文文章，給了你很多值得關注的信息。

（作者：汪翔，著有《喬布斯的商戰》（湖南科技出版社，2012年版））

連接： 追尋春姑娘的腳步圖片系列之一

Apple Fell For the First Time In Past Seven Trading Sessions

March 16, 2012

By Scott Sheffield

If you are not an Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s investor, then you must have been scratching your head with the company’s stock creating record highs constantly. Highlighting is its latest life-time high of just over $600 in yesterday’s session. Significantly, Apple Inc. has become the world largest company with the market value of about $546 billion, followed by Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) of $405.76 billion.

Last week, the company introduced a much awaited third and the upgraded version of the iPad, which is available for pre-orders from Wednesday and is expected to hit the store shelves by March 16.

The stock has surged over by 10% since March 05, 2012 with the company’s announced of a new tablet, promising a sharper screen and faster chip than the traditional versions.

Following the announcement of this new launch, several analysts raised their price target on the stock with a couple of brokerage firms setting the price target of over $700, reflecting a potential gain of at least 19% from the current price.

As per analysts at Canaccord Genuity, the company has already attained records for pre-orders with the wait time for shipping the tablet now reaching 2-3 weeks. With anticipation that the company would be selling 65.6 million iPads this year, the firm boosted its price target on the stock by $45 to $710.

On the other hand, Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley lifted the price target by $205 to $720, stating investors “still underestimate the potential earnings upside at Apple.” Also, Katy Huberty puts a bull case scenario with the price target of $960, about 80% higher from the current market price and projecting EPS of $80 in 2013, citing several reasons.

So has the stock reached its bottom? Well, if we look at the company’s business, it has been pretty well with majority market share (of 54.70%) in the tablet market (last quarter of 2011 as per IDC) and analysts are estimating that he party is not yet over for this market.  The stock looks promising for the medium to long term considering strong brand image, bright prospectus, record revenue and solid cash in hand. However, it is difficult to predict the movement for the short term given the pace of recent rallies.

There is no doubt that the company has put immense pressure on its competitors including Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ), Research In Motion Limited (USA) (NASDAQ:RIMM) and Nokia Corporation (ADR) (NYSE:NOK).

Now, rumors are surfacing that the company could announce the latest version of iPhone later this year.

Brief Trading History

The stock just took 23 days to move from $500 to $600, and 34 days to move from $400 to $500, which is quite impressive. So far this year, the stock has already gained over 44% and over 565% over the past five years, compared to flat return on S&P 500. The stock closed higher for 35 trading sessions in the past 49 trading sessions in the current year so far.

Yesterday, the stock ended lower by 0.70% at $585.56 for the first time in the past seven trading sessions after hitting record high of $600.01. The stock sold off lately after Deutsche Bank removed Apple from its “Shorter-term Opportunities within Long-term Analyst Recommendations,” or SOLAR, list.