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 | 中国人是放高利贷者还是冤大头 |
| | 【社会观察(3)】
中国人是放高利贷者还是冤大头
伍加，2010年2月5日
截止 2009 年 7 月底，中国持有的美国国债数量已超过八千零五亿美元。美国向中国借了这么多钱，会不会赖账不还？温家宝说：我确实有些担心。中国金融官员说：没事儿，我们还要继续增持美国国债。今天看到网上有人说：中国的八千亿美元铁定完蛋了，美国绝不会归还，这是美国人亲口说的。我不信，就去看了看到底美国人是咋说的。这是一个演讲录像，网址是：
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3915119166991168859#，
也可以在网页 http://mises.org/story/3493 上看到。
演讲者是美国欧洲太平洋资本有限公司的总裁彼得－希夫（Peter Schiff），演讲是去年（2009年）7月12日在米塞斯研究院（Mises Institute）进行的。在这近一小时的录像中，有三分钟讲到了中国购买美国国债的事，如果你没有那么多时间，就只看这三分钟也可以：从 40 分 30 秒开始到 43 分 40 秒的片断。从彼得－希夫的演讲中看到，他确确实实地明确说明了美国绝不会偿还从中国借的钱，理由是中国人在放高利贷。你们明知我们还不了，还借给我们那么多钱，你是白痴你怨谁？不仅如此，我们还要倒打一耙，你们放高利贷，给我们套上债务枷锁，我们要改变游戏规则，借钱就是不还，不还白不还！
除了震惊之外，我想知道彼得－希夫到底是何许人也？他说不还就不还啦？他能代表美国政府吗？
彼得－希夫（Peter Schiff）有自己的博客（http://peterschiffblog.blogspot.com/），还有一个用于竞选参议员的网站（http://schiffforsenate.com/），专门为自己宣传。彼得－希夫今年 46 岁，金融经济专家，已出版三本书，曾在 2006 年成功预测美国的房市危机和金融危机，并在 2008 年的总统竞选中担任总统候选人 Ron Paul 的经济顾问。从 1996 年起，彼得－希夫一直担任欧洲太平洋资本有限公司的总裁。从他的经历看，希夫是美国典型的成功商人和经济精英。他在演讲中阐述的观点虽然不能算美国政府的立场，但确实代表了美国经济精英和社会中坚的真实想法。至于美国政府对中国大量购买美国国债的真实观点，外人只能猜测。
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附录：彼得－希夫演讲的全文和录像放在米塞斯研究院的如下网页
http://mises.org/story/3493，其中有关中国购买美国国债的片断有三分钟，译文和原文附在下面：
[译文]——你知道，昨天中国领导人公开表示对借给我们的钱“有些”担忧，说“有可能”我们还不了。我想他们不只是“有些”担忧，这只是公开说法，想象一下他们私下会怎么看？他们一定知道我们不会还这笔钱，不可能给中国人还这笔钱，这是绝对不可能的。
[原文] Because the Chinese just mentioned yesterday that they were getting a little concerned about all the money they loaned us and that just maybe we won't pay them back. I'm sure they're a lot more than just a little concerned, because that's what they said publicly. Imagine what they're saying privately.
Because they know we're not going to pay them back. Of course we're not going to pay the Chinese back their money. It's impossible. We can't. We can't possibly.
[译文]——想象一下，某天总统奥巴马，对着数万亿美国民众，发表一次公开的电视演说。他这样说道：
“亲爱的美国同胞们，今天非常不幸地，我给你们带来了一个坏消息。政府决定对美国普通民众大幅加税；那些仍然没有失业的人，将为此支付更高的个人所得税；政府将全面削减社会福利，仍然没有实施的各种福利措施将彻底取消；我原先制定的所有计划，包括全民教育、医疗保障、自主能源，所有这些计划将被无限期搁置。因为中国人要我们还钱！我们借的实在是太多了，全世界妇孺皆知。欠债还钱，天经地义。所以我们必须勒紧裤腰带给中国人还钱！”
[原文] Can you imagine? Can you imagine if President Obama, giving the following type of speech to the American citizens.
He'll give a national televised address and say, "My fellow Americans, I've got a little news for you today. We're going to have to have a massive, across-the-board tax increase on average working Americans. Any American that still has a job is going to have to pay much higher income taxes.
"And, as a matter of fact, we're going to have to cut Social Security across the board. Forget the Social Security check, we're going to have to reduce it. And remember all my plans about more education and health care for everybody and energy independence, we got to put all those plans on hold, because the Chinese need their money.
"We borrowed a lot of money from the Chinese and we're good for our debts. They worked hard for that money and they loaned it us to and we're going to pay it back. And that's going to require a big sacrifice on our part."
[译文]——大家认为这样的事可能发生吗？别开玩笑了。
我们更应该对中国人说：“你们是食利者！放高利贷者！我们需要修改游戏规则，我们要打破债务枷锁！你们明知我们还不了，还借给我们那么多钱！这不是我们的错！”
[原文] Does anyone think that we're going to do that? What are they, kidding me?
Do you know what we're going to tell the Chinese? We're going to say, "You guys are predators, predator lenders. We need a modification program. We need a cramdown on this. You never should have lent us all this money. You know we can't pay it back. It's not our fault."
[译文]——中国人自己很清楚，他们无法参与我们的政治选举，我们为什么还要在意中国人怎么想？华盛顿难道会得罪选民，去取悦非选民？
[原文] The Chinese know this. The Chinese, they can't even vote in our elections. Why are we going to care what they think? We're going to tax voters to pay non-voters?
[译文]——中国人很清楚，我们不可能还他们钱，这和伯尼－麦道夫的骗局是同一个道理。别人借我们钱，我们是怎么还的？——再去借新债。
[原文] So the Chinese know they're in this box. The US government, we don't pay our bills. We're like Bernie Madoff. People loan us money. How do we pay it back? We borrow more.
[译文]——麦道夫早期的客户确实能把钱要回来，为什么？因为麦道夫仍然在吸收新钱，骗那些还不知道这是庞氏骗局的人入会。财政部也在做同样的事情，国债到期了怎么办？——再把它卖给其他人。需要支付利息怎么办？——照借不误。如果有一天谁也不愿再买我们的国债了，那就只能违约，和麦道夫一样。违约只有两条途径，要么直接宣布不还，要么印钱。这就是这些债务唯一可能的结局，反正它们不可能被偿还。中国人当然知道这一切，我们很快就会明白。
[原文] If somebody came to Bernie Madoff a couple years ago and wanted their money, they got it. Why did they get it? Because they were able to take in new money. They found another sucker who didn't know it was a Ponzi scheme.
Same thing the US government does. Every time a bond matures, we just go sell another one. And every time we need to pay interest on the national debt, we go borrow that too. Well, it works until nobody wants to lend us any more money, then we're going to have to default, just like Bernie did.
And there's only two ways we can default. We just legitimately don't pay, or we print money. That's it. There's only two ways to repudiate your debt. There's no way we're going to pay the debt; the Chinese have to know that, and we're going to figure that out.
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伍加，2010年2月5日
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