根据2023年1月发表的一篇学术文章综述(题目为We vote for the person, not the policies,引用65篇研究报告,出处见下),西方的民主选举,特别是美国的选举,近年来越来越注重竞选人的性格特征(personality traits)而不是竞选人宣传的政策(policies)。同时,选民自己的性格特征对其投票也有直接的影响。
总结起来就是:选人不选政策,已成为一种趋势。
注意,这个趋势与常说的“选人不选党”相似,但不尽相同。竞选人,无论来自何党,往往都把自己的政策吹得天花乱坠,竞选成功后,是否信守诺言、能否实现诺言,很多政客并不在意,只要能抓住选票就好。选民们在一次次“上当”之后,就转而更加重视竞选人的性格特征了。
何谓性格特征?个人理解,就是竞选人在过往的言行举止中展现出的人品道德诚信亲和力,等等等。从选举心理学的角度分析,不少选民的决定,往往不是根据喜欢谁、而是依照不喜欢谁所作出的。
政策重不重要?当然重要。但政客如何在选举中以性格特征演绎政策、在胜选后如何实现承诺,似乎更为重要,尤其对中间选民而言。
这样一个“选人不选政策”的趋势很有意思,是否在中间选民中大行其道,有待观察。也许两个月后的美国大选就能给出一个答案。
【综述文章】
We vote for the person, not the policies: a systematic review on how personality traits influence voting behaviour https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9831368/ Discov Psychol. 2023; 3(1): 1. Published online 2023 Jan 10. doi: 10.1007/s44202-022-00057-z
Democracies have become more individualized and party leaders are now the decisive actors in the political system. Data obtained presents consequences for the personalization of politics on democratic functioning. Voters' evaluation of candidates’ traits represents significant determinants of the vote. In the same vein, voters' traits are a major factor in voting outcomes. Through this review, we looked at the impact that personality traits of both voters and candidates can have on voting and how the personalization framework may help understand this increasingly present trend in Western politics. A thorough overview of the personality traits that influence voting behavior was provided. We add to the theory of personality trait matching and build a link between traits and the personalization of politics phenomena.
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