川总外交七板斧
随意生活
2020年1日13日
昨天，《Business Insider 》刊登署名文章，题为“Trump's blundering attempts to strong arm Iran follow the same pattern as the China trade-war mess”，颇有意思。
文章生动描述川普总统处理外交事务（尤其是中国、伊朗事物）的模式（pattern ），列出如下七个步骤，姑且称为“七板斧”。
第一板：发现问题 Step 1: There is a legitimate problem.
第二板：挑起争斗以解决问题 Step 2: Trump starts a fight to address the problem. In China's case, the trade war. In Iran's case, his "maximum pressure" campaign of economic sanctions.
第三板：好斗口水战升级 Step 3: As the fight goes on, Trump's language becomes increasingly bellicose, and so does his opponent's.
第四版：针锋相对，关系紧张化 Step 4: A tit-for-tat ratcheting-up of tensions ensues, with parties threatening or engaging in aggressive action.
第五板：威胁恐吓走极端，对手却相对冷静 Step 5: Trump makes threats or engages in extremely aggressive action, and his opponent seems to stand down from doing anything rash.
第六板：紧张局势缓和，但双边关系恶化，相互间的善意与信任丧失殆尽 Step 6: Tensions cool, but the relationship between Trump and his opponent, and their constituents, sours. Any goodwill is gone. Trust dissipates.
第七板：前四板无效，返回第一板。 Step 7: Return to Step 1.
如此周而复始，恶性循环，问题不但没解决，由于关系恶化，显得更加棘手。
文章虽以美中贸易战与伊朗事务为例，川普总统的这七板斧模式似乎也见于北韩问题的处理。虽然川普时而要喝自己的核按钮大，时而与金小三把酒言欢，软硬兼施反复折腾了好几年，北朝鲜的核问题却未得到一丝一毫的解决。
不过老川的这七板斧比起当年瓦岗寨程头领的三板斧还是有创新滴，不光多了四板，并且有那么一点“七伤拳”的意思。当然了，七板斧的最大功效莫过于争取选票连任。正可谓： 七板斧诀，竞选利器。忽悠必行，行不必果。 破字当头，毁而不立。一塌糊涂，丢给下任。
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