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《川普的影響力依然強大》
當談到預測川普總統對共和黨的影響力正在減弱時,媒體情不自禁;自2015年以來,他們錯誤地預測了這一點。
當時,建制派沒有人認真對待川普的候選資格,即使在擊敗了十幾名非常令人印象深刻的共和黨挑戰者後,他們也宣布他對希拉里·克林頓乾杯。你知道故事的其餘部分。
現在,政治專家和新聞媒體正在預測他的去世將進入2024年的選舉,他們會再次被證明是錯誤的嗎?如果川普的政治歷史是我們的指南,那似乎很有可能。
快進到現在,你會看到記者和專家說,共和黨政治建制派已經磨刀,試圖將川普扔到公共汽車下。這根本不是真的。
每當唐納德·川普參加投票時,共和黨人要麼占據多數席位(2016年),要麼獲得席位(2020年)。自2018年特朗普總統在白宮和參議院共和黨人在中期選舉中獲得席位時起,那些想指責他在2022年失去參議院的人患有健忘症。
有趣的是,這在討論中被方便地遺漏了。甚至《紐約時報》也被迫承認川普總統的支持記錄令人印象深刻,82%的支持候選人贏得了他們的競選。除此之外,川普在共和黨選民群中仍然擁有很高的支持率,在一次又一次的民意調查中擊敗了羅恩·德桑蒂斯,並在2024年與喬·拜登進行了強烈匹配。
同樣有趣的是,媒體沒有報道奧巴馬在民主黨總統任期內失去眾議院和參議院席位後在民主黨影響力的減弱,包括2016年奧巴馬在主要搖擺州支持的候選人:佛羅里達州的帕特里克·墨菲、俄亥俄州的泰德·斯特里克蘭、愛荷華州的帕蒂·賈奇、北卡羅來納州的黛博拉·羅斯、威斯康星州的拉斯·費因戈爾德和賓夕法尼亞州的凱蒂·麥金蒂。
將此與川普總統在這次選舉中的關鍵搖擺州的支持進行比較:JD Vance在俄亥俄州獲勝,Ted Budd在北卡羅來納州獲勝,Marco Rubio在佛羅里達州獲勝,Chuck Grassley在愛荷華州獲勝。是的,新罕布什爾州、內華達州和佐治亞州等其他州也遭受了損失。但總體而言,川普在眾議院和參議院有非常強的支持記錄。
另一個被低估的因素是川普在共和黨領導人競選中的影響;他支持兩名候選人,凱文·麥卡錫擔任眾議院議長,埃利斯·斯特凡尼克競選眾議院共和黨會議主席。兩人都贏得了領導力競賽。議長麥卡錫讚揚川普總統幫助詆毀他的人獲得議長的選票。
隨着2024年總統選舉競選的升溫,必須指出,在撰寫本報告時,唐納德·川普是共和黨領域的唯一候選人。他正在籌集數百萬美元,仍然是黨內最強大的力量。每一項民意調查都顯示,他的其他潛在挑戰者,如Mike Pence、Liz Cheney、Larry Hogan、Nikki Haley和Mike Pompeo,沒有機會對抗Trump。他最期待的挑戰來自羅恩·德桑蒂斯,儘管最近的一項民意調查顯示,川普比佛羅里達州州長高出20個百分點,並將在大選中擊敗喬·拜登。
我們國家目前面臨的首要問題:通貨膨脹、經濟、犯罪和邊境都是川普總統為美國人民強烈提出的問題。隨着越來越多的選民繼續對喬·拜登(包括他自己的政黨)感到不滿,請關注川普總統在民意調查中激增。如果川普總統能專注於他的首要問題,他將在2024年擊敗喬·拜登。
2015年,政治專家對特朗普的看法是錯誤的,他們現在又錯了。
第45任總統仍然是共和黨的強大力量,是2024年的推定提名人,如果歷史是我們的指南,那麼有很好的機會再次成為總統。
Garrett Ventry是共和黨政策和通信顧問。他是眾議員肯·巴克的前辦公廳主任和參議院司法委員會的高級通信顧問。
Trump’s Influence Is Not Going Anywhere The press cannot help themselves when it comes to predicting that President Trump's influence over the Republican Party is waning; they have wrongly predicted this since 2015. Nobody in the establishment took Trump’s candidacy seriously back then, and even after defeating over a dozen very impressive Republican challengers, they proclaimed he was toast against Hillary Clinton. You know the rest of the story. Now that the political pundits and news media are projecting his demise going into the 2024 election, will they once again be proven wrong? If Trump’s political history is our guide, that seems very likely. Fast forward to the present moment, and you'll see reporters and pundits saying the Republican political establishment has their knives sharpened, attempting to throw Trump under the bus. It is simply not true. Every single time that Donald Trump has been on the ballot, Republicans either held the majority (2016) or gained seats (2020). The same individuals who want to blame him for losing the Senate in 2022 have amnesia from 2018 when President Trump was in the White House and Senate Republicans gained seats in the midterm elections. Funny how that is conveniently left out in the discussion. Even the New York Times is forced to admit that President Trump’s endorsement track record is impressive, 82 percent of his endorsed candidates won their races. On top of this, Trump still has high approval ratings with the Republican voter base, is defeating Ron DeSantis in poll after poll, and matches up stronglyagainst Joe Biden in 2024. It is also interesting that the media did not write about Obama’s waning influence in the Democrat Party after his party lost seats in the House and Senate during his presidency, including candidates Obama endorsed in key swing states in 2016 that lost: Patrick Murphy in Florida, Ted Strickland in Ohio, Patty Judge in Iowa, Deborah Ross in North Carolina, Russ Feingold in Wisconsin and Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania. Compare this to President Trump’s endorsement in key swing states this election: JD Vance won in Ohio, Ted Budd won in North Carolina, Marco Rubio won in Florida, and Chuck Grassley won in Iowa. Yes, there were losses suffered in other states such as New Hampshire, Nevada, and Georgia. But overall, Trump had a very strong endorsement record in the House and Senate. The other underrated factor is Trump’s influence in Republican leadership races; he endorsed two candidates, Kevin McCarthy for Speaker of the House and Elise Stefanik for House Republican Conference Chair. Both won their leadership races. Speaker McCarthy credited President Trump for helping move his detractors to secure the votes for Speaker. As the race for the 2024 presidential election heats up, it is important to note that at the time of writing, Donald Trump is the only candidate in the Republican field. He is raising millions of dollars and remains the most powerful force in the party. Every single poll shows that his other potential challengers such as Mike Pence, Liz Cheney, Larry Hogan, Nikki Haley, and Mike Pompeo do not stand a chance against Trump. His most anticipated challenge is from Ron DeSantis, though a recent poll shows that Trump tops the Florida governor by 20 points and would defeat Joe Biden in the general election. The top concerns facing our country right now: inflation, the economy, crime, and the border are all issues that President Trump delivered on strongly for the American people. As more voters continue to sour on Joe Biden, including his own political party, watch for President Trump to surge in the polls. If President Trump can focus on his top issues, he will be able to defeat Joe Biden in 2024. Political pundits were wrong in 2015 about Trump and they are wrong now. The 45th president remains a powerful force in the Republican Party, the presumptive nominee in 2024, and if history is our guide, has a very good chance of becoming president again. Garrett Ventry is a Republican policy and communications consultant. He is a former chief of staff for Rep. Ken Buck and senior communications adviser for the Senate Judiciary
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