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《川普的影响力依然强大》

当谈到预测川普总统对共和党的影响力正在减弱时，媒体情不自禁；自2015年以来，他们错误地预测了这一点。

当时，建制派没有人认真对待川普的候选资格，即使在击败了十几名非常令人印象深刻的共和党挑战者后，他们也宣布他对希拉里·克林顿干杯。你知道故事的其余部分。

现在，政治专家和新闻媒体正在预测他的去世将进入2024年的选举，他们会再次被证明是错误的吗？如果川普的政治历史是我们的指南，那似乎很有可能。

快进到现在，你会看到记者和专家说，共和党政治建制派已经磨刀，试图将川普扔到公共汽车下。这根本不是真的。

每当唐纳德·川普参加投票时，共和党人要么占据多数席位（2016年），要么获得席位（2020年）。自2018年特朗普总统在白宫和参议院共和党人在中期选举中获得席位时起，那些想指责他在2022年失去参议院的人患有健忘症。

有趣的是，这在讨论中被方便地遗漏了。甚至《纽约时报》也被迫承认川普总统的支持记录令人印象深刻，82%的支持候选人赢得了他们的竞选。除此之外，川普在共和党选民群中仍然拥有很高的支持率，在一次又一次的民意调查中击败了罗恩·德桑蒂斯，并在2024年与乔·拜登进行了强烈匹配。

同样有趣的是，媒体没有报道奥巴马在民主党总统任期内失去众议院和参议院席位后在民主党影响力的减弱，包括2016年奥巴马在主要摇摆州支持的候选人：佛罗里达州的帕特里克·墨菲、俄亥俄州的泰德·斯特里克兰、爱荷华州的帕蒂·贾奇、北卡罗来纳州的黛博拉·罗斯、威斯康星州的拉斯·费因戈尔德和宾夕法尼亚州的凯蒂·麦金蒂。

将此与川普总统在这次选举中的关键摇摆州的支持进行比较：JD Vance在俄亥俄州获胜，Ted Budd在北卡罗来纳州获胜，Marco Rubio在佛罗里达州获胜，Chuck Grassley在爱荷华州获胜。是的，新罕布什尔州、内华达州和佐治亚州等其他州也遭受了损失。但总体而言，川普在众议院和参议院有非常强的支持记录。

另一个被低估的因素是川普在共和党领导人竞选中的影响；他支持两名候选人，凯文·麦卡锡担任众议院议长，埃利斯·斯特凡尼克竞选众议院共和党会议主席。两人都赢得了领导力竞赛。议长麦卡锡赞扬川普总统帮助诋毁他的人获得议长的选票。

随着2024年总统选举竞选的升温，必须指出，在撰写本报告时，唐纳德·川普是共和党领域的唯一候选人。他正在筹集数百万美元，仍然是党内最强大的力量。每一项民意调查都显示，他的其他潜在挑战者，如Mike Pence、Liz Cheney、Larry Hogan、Nikki Haley和Mike Pompeo，没有机会对抗Trump。他最期待的挑战来自罗恩·德桑蒂斯，尽管最近的一项民意调查显示，川普比佛罗里达州州长高出20个百分点，并将在大选中击败乔·拜登。

我们国家目前面临的首要问题：通货膨胀、经济、犯罪和边境都是川普总统为美国人民强烈提出的问题。随着越来越多的选民继续对乔·拜登（包括他自己的政党）感到不满，请关注川普总统在民意调查中激增。如果川普总统能专注于他的首要问题，他将在2024年击败乔·拜登。

2015年，政治专家对特朗普的看法是错误的，他们现在又错了。

第45任总统仍然是共和党的强大力量，是2024年的推定提名人，如果历史是我们的指南，那么有很好的机会再次成为总统。

Garrett Ventry是共和党政策和通信顾问。他是众议员肯·巴克的前办公厅主任和参议院司法委员会的高级通信顾问。

Trump’s Influence Is Not Going Anywhere

The press cannot help themselves when it comes to predicting that President Trump's influence over the Republican Party is waning; they have wrongly predicted this since 2015. Nobody in the establishment took Trump’s candidacy seriously back then, and even after defeating over a dozen very impressive Republican challengers, they proclaimed he was toast against Hillary Clinton. You know the rest of the story. Now that the political pundits and news media are projecting his demise going into the 2024 election, will they once again be proven wrong? If Trump’s political history is our guide, that seems very likely. 

Fast forward to the present moment, and you'll see reporters and pundits saying the Republican political establishment has their knives sharpened, attempting to throw Trump under the bus. It is simply not true. Every single time that Donald Trump has been on the ballot, Republicans either held the majority (2016) or gained seats (2020). The same individuals who want to blame him for losing the Senate in 2022 have amnesia from 2018 when President Trump was in the White House and Senate Republicans gained seats in the midterm elections. Funny how that is conveniently left out in the discussion. Even the New York Times is forced to admit that President Trump’s endorsement track record is impressive, 82 percent of his endorsed candidates won their races. On top of this, Trump still has high approval ratings with the Republican voter base, is defeating Ron DeSantis in poll after poll, and matches up stronglyagainst Joe Biden in 2024.

It is also interesting that the media did not write about Obama’s waning influence in the Democrat Party after his party lost seats in the House and Senate during his presidency, including candidates Obama endorsed in key swing states in 2016 that lost: Patrick Murphy in Florida, Ted Strickland in Ohio, Patty Judge in Iowa, Deborah Ross in North Carolina, Russ Feingold in Wisconsin and Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania. Compare this to President Trump’s endorsement in key swing states this election: JD Vance won in Ohio, Ted Budd won in North Carolina, Marco Rubio won in Florida, and Chuck Grassley won in Iowa. Yes, there were losses suffered in other states such as New Hampshire, Nevada, and Georgia. But overall, Trump had a very strong endorsement record in the House and Senate. The other underrated factor is Trump’s influence in Republican leadership races; he endorsed two candidates, Kevin McCarthy for Speaker of the House and Elise Stefanik for House Republican Conference Chair. Both won their leadership races. Speaker McCarthy credited President Trump for helping move his detractors to secure the votes for Speaker. 

As the race for the 2024 presidential election heats up, it is important to note that at the time of writing, Donald Trump is the only candidate in the Republican field. He is raising millions of dollars and remains the most powerful force in the party. Every single poll shows that his other potential challengers such as Mike Pence, Liz Cheney, Larry Hogan, Nikki Haley, and Mike Pompeo do not stand a chance against Trump. His most anticipated challenge is from Ron DeSantis, though a recent poll shows that Trump tops the Florida governor by 20 points and would defeat Joe Biden in the general election. The top concerns facing our country right now: inflation, the economy, crime, and the border are all issues that President Trump delivered on strongly for the American people. As more voters continue to sour on Joe Biden, including his own political party, watch for President Trump to surge in the polls. If President Trump can focus on his top issues, he will be able to defeat Joe Biden in 2024. 

Political pundits were wrong in 2015 about Trump and they are wrong now. The 45th president remains a powerful force in the Republican Party, the presumptive nominee in 2024, and if history is our guide, has a very good chance of becoming president again. 

Garrett Ventry is a Republican policy and communications consultant. He is a former chief of staff for Rep. Ken Buck and senior communications adviser for the Senate Judiciary