一个多礼拜前,一位网友与我分享了一则报道:据一家国际咨询公司(GlobeScan)调查, 2010 年美国民众对“自由市场经济”的满意度相比2009 年大幅下降,同意“自由市场经济是是对世界的未来最好的体制”(“The free market system and free market economy is the best system on which to base the future of the world”) 这个statement 的美国人,只占受访总数的59%（2009 年该比例是72%); 而同意这个statement 的中国人,则占该国受访总数的67%！该机构发表的调查报告用了一个很吸引眼球的标题: “美国人对自由市场的热情大幅下跌”（"Sharp Drop in American Enthusiasm for Free Market"), 而其他一些引用该调查结果的文章, 也用了一些相似的标题, 比如“美国人对自由市场经济的支持度低于中国和巴西”("US Support for Free Market Capitalism Drops below China, Brazil")，并在互联网上引起了热烈的争论。
首先我们来看一下调查的设计和操作。据报道, 该机构自从九十年代后期就开始做这个一年一度的调查,每年都在二十多个国家通过电话访问和面谈进行调查。2010年的受访总人数为12,884人,分布在25 个国家。报道没有提到这些受访者是如何选定的,他们的年龄,职业,和其他社会经济背景也都没有具体描述。但这里我们姑且相信,象这种专业的咨询公司，做这样的“routine opinions poll ”,在样本的多样化和代表性等方面应该是不会有太大问题的。在调查中,这些被访者要对下面这句话做出回应:“自由市场体系和自由市场经济是对世界的未来最好的体系”（"The free market system and free market economy is the best system on which to base the future of the world"), 选择的项目有“强烈同意”,“部分同意”,“部分不同意”,“强烈不同意”,和“不一定”（下面的图2 为各个国家的受访者在这些选项的分布）。
而在中国和巴西, 印度等曾经的“计划经济”国家,引进自由市场体制却使得生产力得到了极大的提高和发展，“让一部分人先富起来”这个“资本主义”的理念,也使得人们的创造性和自主性得到了空前的发挥；这个“体制转变”的结果,是这些国家在过去二十多年中经济的腾飞和人们生活水平的大幅提高。因此,这些国家的民众,对于给他们的生活带来了实质利益的 “自由市场经济", 才会有日趋正面的态度。当然，随着“资本主义”体制在这些国家的生根发芽, 有很多深层的矛盾将会渐渐浮出，比如中国已经恶化的贫富分化问题; 而且, 许多经济学家们并不认为中国今天的经济体系是真正的“自由市场经济”, 它实质上更象一个“国家资本主义”。用一位评论者的话来说, “在美国, 是企业控制国家; 而在中国, 则是国家控制企业 ( "In the US the corporations control the state; In China the state controls the corporations")。虽然自由的经济体系被证明是最有效地提升一个社会的生产力的体制, 但它如何在持续的国家介入下保持这种优势，是一个值得思考的问题。
"I think the economy should be driven by market, not by government.
However, market economy must be REGULATED by government, If everyone is trying to maximize his/her own interest, the group interest may be compromised. That is why there was a financial meltdown in US."
I think the economy should be driven by market, not by government.
If demand is created by government, such as highway, high speed train, Olympic games, World expo, it is not sustainable. Period.
However, market economy must be REGULATED by government, If everyone is trying to maximize his/her own interest, the group interest may be compromised. That is why there was a financial meltdown in US.
至于每年的访问是否是同样的一群人，这个更无从得知。不过，如果样本随机做得好，而且有代表性的话，倒是不必非得是同样的受众才能得到有可信度的结论（一般来讲，跟踪同样人群 over the years 肯定比cross-sectional design 的要好，但操作起来要难得多，所以一般这样的调查都是用 cross-sectional, not longitudinal ）。
Representative Eric Cantor H-329 The Capital Washington, DC 20515
April 24, 2011
Dear Representative Cantor,
I am sending this note to you, as well as to Senators Harry Reid and Mitch McConnel, and Representative John Boehner. I recently read an article forwarded to me by one of my professors, titled, "Sharp Drop in American Enthusiasm for Free Market, Poll Shows.” I am a social welfare policy analyst with a mission toward bringing social welfare programs into the 21st century; making them not only efficient but self-supporting. I am also a strong supporter of the free market.
PLEASE do your best to remind the American people that big business is not the problem; it is the greed and ardent power-lust of a few people--flesh-and-bone humans--that exploit the rich, the middle-class and the poor simply to enrich themselves. It is the job of the Congress and of the SEC to police these "people" with hard-line, reasonable and enforceable regulations and oversight – Congress and the Senate have failed miserably in providing us these critical services. The inability of the Congress of the United States to oversee anything is THE primary reason our economy is faltering - they are the reason hundreds of billions of tax-payer dollars are wasted through fraud and abuse and replication of programs!
PLEASE, remind the American people that we have the best economic system in the world. It is just unfortunate that we also have some of the worst people in the world running and overseeing these organizations. Unfortunately the finger needs to be pointed in the direction of these few that have made the situation so caustic and bitter. There is no better system in the world than the free market, coupled with democracy, individual freedom and responsible oversight. Fix the oversight, put these greedy people in prison and the system will run like an American watch. Redirect the blame to where it rightfully belongs – bad people and poor oversight. The problems are much easier to fix when the blame is laid at the feet of the real culprits.
