導言 斯坦福的政治學家福山教授曾經預言民主制度的勝出，被認為預言不准。他於2022年3月 12日對俄國入侵烏克蘭的局勢的未來發展做出他稱為“斗膽冒昧” 的系列預測。以下是他 的原文翻譯。 Preparing for Defeat Francis Fukuyama 10 Mar 2022, 4:03 pm 我斗膽冒昧對烏克蘭局勢，做幾個預言。 I’m writing this from Skopje, North Macedonia, where I’ve been for the last week teaching one of our Leadership Academy for Development courses. Following the Ukraine war is no different here in terms of available information, except that I’m in an adjacent time zone, and the fact that there is more support for Putin in the Balkans than in other parts of Europe. A lot of the latter is due to Serbia, and Serbia's hosting of Sputnik. I’ll stick my neck out and make several prognostications: 1.俄羅斯在烏克蘭正走向徹底的失敗。俄羅斯的計劃是一個低能產品，基於一個錯誤的假 設，即烏克蘭人對俄羅斯鍾情好感，他們的軍隊會在俄羅斯入侵後立即崩潰。俄羅斯士 兵顯然為他們在基輔的勝利遊行攜帶了禮服制服，而不是額外的彈藥和口糧。普京此時 已將其整個軍隊的大部分投入到這次行動中--沒有龐大的儲備部隊可以被他調用來增 加戰鬥力。俄羅斯軍隊被困在烏克蘭的各個城市之外，他們面臨着巨大的供應問題和烏 克蘭的不斷攻擊。 Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks. 2.俄軍陣列的崩潰可能是突然和災難性的，而不是通過消耗戰慢慢發生。野戰中的軍隊將 達到一個既不能補給也不能撤退的地步，士氣也會蒸發全無。這至少在北方是如此；俄 國人在南方做得更好，但如果北方崩潰，南方的軍隊將很難維持。 The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses. 3.在俄軍崩潰的情況發生之前，沒有任何用外交談判解決戰爭的可能性，因為鑑於俄羅斯 和烏克蘭目前各自所遭受的損失，沒有任何可以想象的折中方案能讓他們接受。 There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point. 4.聯合國安理會再次被證明是無用的。唯一有幫助的是聯合國大會投票，這有助於識別世 界上的存心不良或推諉責任的作為方。 The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. The only helpful thing was the General Assembly vote, which helps to identify the world’s bad or prevaricating actors. 5.拜登政府不宣布禁飛區或幫助轉送波蘭米格機的決定都是好的；他們在一個非常情緒化 的時期保持了清醒。讓烏克蘭人自己打敗俄羅斯人要好得多，使莫斯科失去了北約攻擊 他們的藉口，同時也避免了所有明顯的戰爭升級可能性。特別是波蘭的米格機不會給烏 克蘭的作戰能力增色多少。更重要的是持續供應標槍、毒刺、TB2s、醫療用品、通訊設 備和情報共享。我認為，烏克蘭部隊已經獲得北約在烏克蘭境外的情報部門的引導了。 The Biden administration’s decisions not to declare a no-fly zone orhelp transfer Polish MiGs were both good ones; they've kept their heads during a very emotional time. It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine. 6.當然，烏克蘭所付出的代價是巨大的。對烏克蘭受到的最大的損害是由俄軍的火箭彈和 大炮造成的，無論是波蘭提供米格機還是北約設立禁飛區都無法對此有多大的阻止。唯 一能阻止屠殺的是擊敗地面上的俄羅斯軍隊。 The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being done by rockets and artillery, which neither MiGs nor a no-fly zone can do much about. The only thing that will stop the slaughter is defeat of the Russian army on the ground. 7.普京不會在他的軍隊被擊敗後倖存下來。他得到支持是因為他被認為是一個強人；一旦 他表現出無能並被剝奪了脅迫他人的權力，他還有什麼價值呢？ Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power? 8.入侵已經對世界各地的民粹主義者造成了巨大的傷害，在襲擊之前，他們一致表示同情 普京。這包括薩爾維尼、博爾索納羅、澤莫爾、勒龐、奧爾班，當然還有特朗普。此次 戰爭中的政治表現暴露了他們公開的威權主義傾向。 The invasion has already done huge damage to populists all over the world, who prior to the attack uniformly expressed sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán, and of course Donald Trump. The politics of the war has exposed their openly authoritarian leanings. 9.戰爭進行到這一步，對中國來說是一堂很好的課。 The war to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has built up seemingly high-tech military forces in the past decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air force would likely be replicated by the People’s Liberation Army Air Force, which similarly has no experience managing complex air operations. We may hope that the Chinese leadership will not delude itself as to its own capabilities the way the Russians did when contemplating a future move against Taiwan. 10.希望台灣自己能夠清醒。 Hopefully Taiwan itself will wake up as to the need to prepare to fight as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let’s not be prematurely defeatist. 11.土耳其的無人機將成為暢銷品。 Turkish drones will become bestsellers. 12.俄羅斯的失敗將使"自由的新生" 成為可能，並使我們擺脫對全球民主衰落狀態的迷茫。 1989年的精神將繼續存在，這要感謝一群勇敢的烏克蘭人。 A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukranians.
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另：Two Steps From Hell 粉看過來，為烏克蘭而作的新作品
《Wings for Ukraine》
剛剛問世就衝上近17萬的觀看。他們全部收入將捐贈給烏克蘭的兒童
歌詞：你是我的信仰你是我的希望展開愛的翅膀啊....和平的心在流淚，我們的孩子在哭泣只有在一起我們才能拯救他們（舒適，溫暖，保護）我們心愛的母親星球正在流血讓我們通過選擇來治癒累積的痛苦Oh my Brother 請牽我的手（牽我的手，讓我們一起牽）只有愛與和平才能停止苦難啊....
